黑龙江省水稻产量风险分布及区划
Risk Distribution and Regionalization of Rice Yield in Heilongjiang Province
韩语轩 1王莉雯1
作者信息
- 1. 辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,辽宁大连116000
- 折叠
摘要
[目的]分析黑龙江省水稻产量风险的空间分布规律,并进行风险区划.[方法]对黑龙江省历年水稻单产相对气象产量序列进行正态分布判别和偏态分布正态化处理,选取水稻平均减产率、减产率变异系数和减产率大于10％的风险概率作为评价指标,分析黑龙江省水稻产量风险的空间分布规律,并采用K-means平均聚类算法进行黑龙江省水稻产量的灾害风险区划.[结果]按照水稻产量的灾害风险区划,将黑龙江省划分为低、中、高3类风险区.黑龙江省水稻单产减产风险区呈整体连片、局部分散的特点.高风险区位于黑龙江省东北部和西南部地区,北部及东部地区为中风险区,而黑龙江省中部和南部地区风险最低,属于低风险区.[结论]合理调整种植结构,加强水稻生产管理和完善灌溉设施是规避黑龙江水稻产量风险的主要措施.
Abstract
[Objective] To analyze spatial distribution law of rice yield risk in Heilongjiang Province and conduct risk zoning.[Method] Applying the average rice cut rate,the variation coefficient of cut rate and risk probability of cut rate at 10％ or higher as the evaluation indicators,relative meteorological yield array of rice yield per unit in Heilongjiang Province in calendar years was processed by performing the discrimination of normal distribution and the normalization of skewness distribution,the spatial risk distribution of rice yield was analyzed.By using K-Means,the disaster risk regionalization of rice yield in Heilongjiang Province was conducted.[Result] This article divided Heilongjiang Province into low,medium and high three type areas of risk.The result indicated that risk areas of rice yield reduction are contiguous on the whole and scattered in a small part.Southwest and northeast of Heilongjiang Province were high risk area,well northern and eastern parts were medium one and central and southern parts belonged to low risk area.[Conclusion] The main measure to reduce the risk on rice output in Heilongjiang Province is to adjust the planting structure properly,to improve the rice management and to perfect the irrigation facilities.
关键词
黑龙江省/水稻/风险评价指标/风险区划Key words
Heilongjiang Province/Rice/Risk evaluation indicators/Risk regionalization引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金(41375117)
国家自然科学基金(41271421)
出版年
2016
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
维普
万方数据