基于边际模型的城镇化对耕地影响极限研究——以海口市为例
Limit Research of the Influence of Urbanization on Cultivated Land Based on Marginal Model—A Case of Haikou City
袁业 1宋晓丽1
作者信息
- 1. 海南大学政治与公共管理学院,海南海口570228
- 折叠
摘要
针对海口市城镇化进程引致耕地减少这一问题,首先采用扩展Kaya恒等式以及LMDI分解模型,测算2004 ～2014年海口市城镇化引致的耕地减少量;然后运用经济学边际效应模型、回归分析以及函数求导方法,构建边际耕地变化率测度模型;最后利用Excel软件,构造趋势线模型,测算城镇化进程对耕地影响最小的极限时刻.结果表明,海口市边际耕地变化率曲线为开口向下的抛物线,其极值点大约出现在2008年.该结果可为相关部门制定土地利用规划以及耕地保护政策提供参考.
Abstract
According to the problem of cultivated land reduction induced by urbanization in Haikou City,extended Kaya identical equation and LMDI decomposition model were used to measure the cultivated land reduction induced by urbanization in Haikou City from 2004 to 2014.Then,marginal economics model,regression analysis and function derivative method were used to construct the change rate of marginal cultivated land.Finally,trend line model was constructed by Excel software.The time limit of the minimum effects of urbanization process on cultivated land was measured.Results showed that the change rate curve of marginal cultivated land was a parabola going downwards.Its extreme point appeared at about the year 2008.This research provided references for the policy making of cultivated land protection and land-use planning of relevant departments.
关键词
海口/城镇化/耕地/LMDI分解模型Key words
Haikou/Urbanization/Cultivated land/LMDI model引用本文复制引用
基金项目
海南省哲学社会科学规划课题(HNSKZC15-4)
海南省自然科学基金(20157254)
海南大学教育教学研究项目(hdjy1648)
出版年
2016
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
维普
万方数据