区域气候模式对西北太平洋热带气旋活动模拟能力检验
Simulation Ability Test of Regional Climate Model to Tropical Cyclone Activities over Western North Pacific
束正淼1
作者信息
- 1. 解放军理工大学气象海洋学院,江苏南京211101
- 折叠
摘要
选取RMIP第3阶段由南京大学提供的3个区域气候模式模拟结果,将模拟的1980～1999年西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)的活动特征与观测进行对比,初步检验了模式模拟西北太平洋TC活动特征的能力.结果表明,3个模式模拟的TC生成频数和实况差异均较大,WRF模式和WRF_sn模式的TC生成频数比观测分别多53.1％和40.8％,而RegCM3模式比观测少76.5％;在TC生成地点分布方面,WRF模式对南海TC生成模拟效果较差,WRF_sn模式对西北太平洋3个TC生成大值区均有一定的模拟能力,RegCM3模式的TC生成频数普遍偏少;WRF模式和WRF_sn模式均能模拟出TC生成频数的季节变化和年际变化,但模拟的最大TC生成月份分别出现在7和6月,比实际最大生成的8月分别早1～2个月.分析6～ 10月环境场发现,模拟的TC生成频数和生成位置空间分布的误差与季风槽位置、垂直风切变强度等的模拟误差有关.
Abstract
Using the simulation results of three regional climate models (RCMs) provided by RMIP Ⅲ,the capability of RCMs to simulate the tropical cyclones (TCs) over Western North Pacific during 1980 to 1999 was assessed by comparing the simulated WRF,WRF_sn and RegCM3 with the observations.The study showed that relatively large biases in genesis number of TCs were produced by all three RCMs,as WRF_SN and WRF overestimating the annual mean number of TCs by 53.1％ and 40.8％,respectively,RegCM3 displaying underestinmation of 60.4％.The simulated distribution of TC genesis positions in WRF_sn agreed well with the observation,and the simulated frequency of TC genesis was less than the observation in RegCM3.Annual cycle of TC genesis was well represented by WRF and WRF_SN,with up to two-month advance of peak value appreading ahead of the observation.With further investigation on the large-scale environmental fields in June-October,it could be concluded that the RCMs' ability of simulating the frequency and distribution of TC genesis was associated with the biases of the simulated monsoon trough location,strength of vertical wind and so on.
关键词
RMIP/热带气旋/西北太平洋/区域气候模式/大尺度环境场Key words
RMIP/Tropical cyclone/Western North Pacific/Regional climate mode/Large-scale environmental fields引用本文复制引用
基金项目
亚洲区域气候模式比较计划项目(ARCP2010_04CMY_WANG)
出版年
2016
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
维普
万方数据