湖北省经济增长与能源消费的协整分析
Cointegration Analysis between Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in Hubei Province
都俊杰 1何先平1
作者信息
- 1. 长江大学工程技术学院,湖北荆州434020
- 折叠
摘要
根据2000 ～2013年湖北省经济增长总量(GDP)与能源消费总量(EC)的年度数据,运用协整检验、Granger因果分析等方法,分析了湖北省的经济增长与能源消费之间的关系.结果表明,湖北省煤炭和石油的消费量与GDP分别存在着协整关系;从GDP到煤类消费量存在单向Granger因果关系,GDP与油类消费量不存在Granger因果关系,GDP与天然气的消费量存在双向Granger因果关系,从水电的消费量到GDP存在单向Granger因果关系;短时间内湖北省的经济增长总量增长1个百分点,能源的总消耗量会增加0.81个百分点.据此,提出了提高湖北省能源利用效率的相关建议.
Abstract
According to the annual data of economic growth (GDP) and the total energy consumption (EC) in Hubei Province in 2000-2013,cointegration test and Granger causal analysis were used to research the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in Hubei Province.Results showed that there was cointegration relationship between GDP and the coal and oil consumption in Hubei Province,monodirectional Granger causal relationship between GDP and coal consumption,no Granger causal relationship between GDP and oil consumption,bi-directional causal relationship between GDP and natural gas consumption,monodirectional Granger causal relationship between GDP and the hydroelectricity consumption.GDP in Hubei Province enahnced by one percentage in a short period; and the total energy consumption enhanced by 0.81 percentage.Based on these,relevant suggestions were put forward for the energy use efliciency of Hubei Province.
关键词
能源消费/经济增长/ADF检验/协整分析Key words
Energy consumption/Economic growth/ADF test/Cointegration analysis引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年基金(61503047)
工程技术学院教研项目(JY201411)
出版年
2016
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
维普
万方数据