基于Nerlove模型的我国蔬菜供给反应研究
Reaction of Vegetable Supply in China Based on Nerlove Model
李国飞 1徐广才 2高运安3
作者信息
- 1. 北京农学院经济管理学院
- 2. 北京农学院都市农业研究所
- 3. 北京市新农村建设研究基地，北京102206
- 折叠
摘要
[目的]探索蔬菜稳定供应具体影响因素。[方法]运用1978～2013年共35年的我国蔬菜供给和价格的时间序列数据，应用Ner-love模型实证分析蔬菜供给反应。[结果]蔬菜供给的短期价格弹性较低，容易引起蔬菜价格的剧烈波动；蔬菜供给的长期价格弹性较高，蔬菜供需将最终走向平衡。[结论]蔬菜预期价格受以往多期实际价格影响，蔬菜供应者将综合考虑以往多期的实际价格变化来安排蔬菜种植计划。
Abstract
Objective] To explore the influencing factors of stable vegetable supply.[Method] Time series data of price and vegetable supply were used in China in 35 years (1978-2013).Vegetable supply reaction was analyzed by Nerlove Model.[Result] Short-term price elasticity of vegetable supply was low, which was easy to cause severe fluctuations in the price of vegetable.The long-term price elasticity of vegetable sup-ply was high, indicating that the vegetable supply and demand would eventually strike a balance.[Conclusion] The expected price of vegetables is impacted by the actual prices of past multiple periods , so vegetable suppliers should consider the actual prices in the past periods to arrange for the planting of vegetables.
关键词
蔬菜/供给反应/价格/Nerlove模型Key words
Vegetable/Reaction of supply/Price/Nerlove Model引用本文复制引用
基金项目
北京市新农村基地研究专项2016 年专项项目“科技创新服务能力建设－科研基地－哲社基地－北京新农村建设研究基地(市级)”(PXM2016＿014207＿000007)
出版年
2016
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
维普
万方数据