摘要
利用安徽省六安地区6个县市气象观测站1981～2015年的逐日平均气温资料，采用线性趋势分析、M－K非参数突变分析等方法对稳定通过10、20℃初终日期、持续日数和积温的变化特征进行了分析。结果表明，近35年来六安地区稳定通过10和20℃的初日均呈提前趋势，初始日期在全市范围内提前幅度分别为2．2和3．1 d／10 a，气候突变点均出现在1997年；终止日期呈推迟趋势，推迟幅度分别为1．4和0．9 d／10 a，不存在显著的气候突变点。稳定通过10和20℃的持续日数均呈递增趋势，平均增幅分别为3．6和4．0 d／10 a，气候突变点分别出现在1997、1994年。稳定通过10和 20℃的积温均呈递增趋势，平均增幅分别为126．7和116．0（℃· d）／10 a，气候突变点均出现在1994年。
Abstract
Based on the daily average temperature data from meteorological stations in 6 counties in Lu’an City during 1981-2015, changing characteristics of the beginning and ending dates, continuous days, and accumulated temperature of ≥10 and≥20 ℃ were analyzed by using linear climate tendency analysis and M-K nonparametric mutation analysis.The results showed that in Lu’ an City during recent 35 years, the beginning dates of ≥10 and ≥20 ℃ were 2.2 and 3.1 d/10 a earlier respectively, and their abrupt changes occurred in 1997; the ending dates were 1.4 and 0.9 d/10 a later respectively, but the ending dates had no significant abrupt change.The continuous days of ≥10 and≥20 ℃ increased significantly by 3.6 and 4.0 d/10 a respectively, and the abrupt changes happened around 1997 and 1994 respectively. The accumulated temperature of≥10 and≥20 ℃also increased significantly by 126.7 and 116.0 ℃/10 a respectively, and the abrupt chan-ges appeared around 1994.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
维普
万方数据