According to the quality test method of short-and-medium term weather forecast, we test the mean absolute error, root mean square error and accuracy rate from January to December 2014.Results showed that in the instruction forecast of National Meteorological Centre, fore-cast quality of daily minimum temperature was significantly higher than that of daily maximum temperature.Guidance forecast of summer and autumn had good reference value.Correction range of daily lowest temperature should be controlled within 2.0 ℃.Temperature forecast showed seasonal errors.Accuracy rate of daily minimum temperature from big to small was in the order of summer, spring, autumn and winter;the accuracy rate of daily maximum temperature from big to small was in the order of autumn, winter, spring and summer.Forecasting quality of daily maximum temperature after correction significantly improved, which could be used as references in practical forecast.
关键词
指导预报产品/平均绝对误差/均方根误差/准确率/检验订正
Key words
Guide forecast products/Mean absolute error/Root mean square error/Accuracy rate/Test and revision
万方数据