摘要
2016年5月2、15、23日甘肃中部金昌地区出现3次霜冻天气，其中以15日的霜冻强度最大，从天气实况、环流形势、前期气候背景、数值产品预报效果检验等方面进行了分析，找出了此类天气的预报着眼点。结果表明，前期气温异常偏高促使农作物生长发育期提前，抵抗低温冻害的能力减弱；乌拉尔山高压脊的发展为冷空气的南下及低槽冷空气的增强提供了有利条件；霜冻多发生在天空晴朗少云、风力较弱、温度显著下降的寒冷夜晚；强霜冻往往是由平流降温和辐射降温共同影响所致；欧洲中心和T 639形势场及其细网格温度场预报对霜冻天气预报具有较好的指示性。
Abstract
Three frost weather occurred on 2, 15 and 23 May, 2016 in the central fistrict of Gansu Province—Jinchang, the frost weather on 15 May was the most powerful frost among them .This paper found a way to predict the frost by analyzing three frost weather from reality state , cause analysis,the climate background at early stage and numerical forecast products .The results showed that:The early temperatures on the high side to promote crop growth development period in advance , at the same time,the ability of resistance to low temperature freezing injury were weakened; The development of Ural mountain ridge provided favorable conditions for the cold air to move southward; Frost offen appear in the less cloud, weak wind, a significant reduction in the temperature of a cold night ;Strong frost was often caused by advection cooling and radiation cooling or their mutual influence; EC and T639situation field and its fine grid temperature field has a good indication on freezing weather forecast.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
维普
万方数据