基于ARIMA模型的“十三五”期间庆阳市城乡居民收入差距预测
Prediction of Urban-rural Income Gap in Qingyang during the “13th Five-year” Period Based on ARIMA Model
陈兵建 1吕艳丽2
作者信息
- 1. 兰州文理学院经济管理学院，甘肃兰州730010
- 2. 兰州城市学院数学学院，甘肃兰州730070
- 折叠
摘要
根据1986～2015年甘肃省庆阳市城乡居民收入数据，构建ARIMA模型分别对“十三五”期间庆阳市城镇居民人均可支配收入和农村居民人均纯收入进行预测，得出“十三五”期间的城乡收入绝对差距和相对差距。结果表明，“十三五”期间庆阳市城乡居民收入绝对差距逐年拉大而相对差距逐年缩小。提出了进一步缩小庆阳市城乡居民收入差距的对策建议。
Abstract
According to the income data of urban and rural residents in Qingyang City during 1986-2015 , ARIMA model is established to fore-cast per capita disposable income of urban residents and per capita net income of rural residents during the “13th Five-year” period, thereby ob-taining absolute and relative gaps of urban-rural income from 2016 to 2020 .The results show that the absolute gap of urban-rural income will gradually increase and the relative gap will be shrinking in the next five years.Some suggestions are put forward to narrow urban-rural income gap in Qingyang.
关键词
城乡居民收入差距/ADF检验/ARIMA模型/动态预测Key words
Urban-rural income gap/ADF test/ARIMA model/Dynamic prediction引用本文复制引用
基金项目
2015年甘肃省高等学校科研项目(2015B－137)
出版年
2016
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
维普
万方数据