摘要
利用2004—2013年灾情和积雪深度资料，采用统计分析方法，分析了近10年新疆春季融雪型洪水的时空分布特征以及与地理气候特征关系。结果表明，伊犁河谷、塔城地区北部、阿勒泰地区为春季融雪型洪水的极易发区，天山北坡为易发区，南疆为低发区；近10年新疆春季融雪型洪水有明显的增加趋势，3月和4月下旬为高发时期，特别是3月中旬；春季融雪型洪水多发生在山麓、山前平原和河谷地带的3～5级水系附近；2月底积雪深度距平百分率可作为春季融雪型洪水预测预报的重要指标。
Abstract
Based on disaster and snow depth data during 2004-2013, using statistical analysis method, the spatiotemporal distribution charac-teristics of spring snowmelt flooding events in Xinjiang were analyzed , as well as the relationship with geographical and climatic characteristics . The results showed that, Ili River Valley, northern Tacheng and Altay region were extremely spring snowmelt flood-prone areas, the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains was prone area , and the southern part of Xinjiang region was low-incidence area;Spring snowmelt floods in recent 10 years presented an overall significantly increasing trend in Xinjiang , and occurred mainly in March and late-April, especially in mid-March;The occurrence area were in the foothills, piedmont plains and river valleys near 3-5 grade rivers;snow-depth anomaly percentage in late February could be used as the important indicator of snowmelt flood forecasting .
基金项目
中国气象局公共气象服务中心业务服务专项基金(M2014008)
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据