基于气象因子的启东市土壤墒情预报研究
Study on Soil Moisture Forecast Based on Meteorological Factors in Qidong City
顾天真 1徐云 1张琪 1顾沛澍1
作者信息
- 1. 江苏省南通市气象局,江苏南通226000
- 折叠
摘要
利用逐步回归方法,分别分析启东市2011-2014年的土壤表墒、底墒与同时期的气象因子(降水量、温度、湿度、日照、风)的相关性,筛选出影响土壤墒情的关键气象因子,并结合经验公式法建立土壤墒情预报模型.结果表明,影响启东市土壤墒情的气象因子主要是降水量、日照和气温,由此建立的预报模型预报未来30 d内土壤墒情的平均相对误差在5％以内,检验效果理想,说明利用该模型可以较为准确地预报未来30 d内土壤墒情,并用于指导农业生产.
Abstract
The stepwise regression method was used to find the relationship between the soil moisture and meteorological factors,based on the soil moisture and meteorological data of 2011-2014 in Qidong City.Key meteorological factors were found,and the soil moisture forecast model were established,combined empirical formula.The results showed that the precipitation,sunshine and temperature were the key meteorological factors affecting soil moisture of Qidong City.The average forecast error for.soil moisture was controlled in less than 5％ within the next 30 days.The results for the soil moisture forecasted by this model within 30 days can be used to guide agricultural production.
关键词
土壤墒情/气象因子/逐步回归/统计预报Key words
Soil moisture/Meteorological factor/Stepwise regression/Statistical forecast引用本文复制引用
出版年
2016
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
维普
万方数据