汉中市旅游-经济-生态环境耦合协调发展水平分析与预测
Analysis and Forecast of Coupling Coordination Development among the Tourism Industry-Regional Economy-Ecological Environment in Hanzhong
何红1
作者信息
- 1. 陕西理工大学历史文化与旅游学院,陕西汉中 723000
- 折叠
摘要
以地处秦巴腹地的汉中市为例,构建旅游、经济与生态环境评价系统,运用耦合协调发展度模型对2000-2014年汉中市旅游、经济、生态环境的耦合协调水平进行测度,并基于测度数据,结合灰色预测模型对2016-2020年的耦合协调度进行预测.研究结果表明:2000-2014年三系统综合效益指数均呈现出不同程度的上升趋势.旅游产业与经济发展、生态环境关联度较高,旅游效益、经济效益指数交替平稳增长,生态环境效益指数波动较大.系统耦合协调度基本呈稳步增长态势,经历了衰退失调(2000-2009年)、濒临失调(2010-2012年)和勉强协调(2013-2014年)发展阶段.模型预测结果显示,未来6年耦合协调度分别为0.621、0.674、0.730、0.791、0.855、0.924,发展态势良好,系统步入协调发展阶段.
Abstract
Taking Hanzhong City as an example,which is located in Qinling and Ba Mountains,this paper firstly constructed an evaluation system of Tourism industry-Regional economy-Ecological environment,and then evaluated the development level of these three systems based on the statistics data of Hanzhong City from the year 2000 to 2014.Secondly,the paper analyzed the coupling coordination level of Hanzhong City.Lastly,the paper predicted the coupling coordinative degree of Tourism industry-Regional economy-Ecological environment from the year 2016 to 2020 by GM (1,1) forecasting model.The results show that the index for comprehensive benefit has been on the rise in varying degrees from the year 2000 to 2014.The index values of tourism benefits,economic returns,ecologic benefits and comprehensive benefits increased year by year.Tourism industry is related with regional economy and ecological environment.There is alternative growth between tourism industry and regional economy.The benefit index of ecological environment fluctuates obviously.The coupling coordination level of Tourism industry-Regional economy-Ecological environment presents a steady-state rising trend continuously.The coupling coordination index of the three systems is in a serious imbalance from the year 2000 to 2009.It is close to the maladjustment from the year 2010 to 2012.From the year 2013 to 2014,the coupling coordination index of the three systems is in a barely coordination.In the following six years,the coupling coordination index is respectively 0.621,0.674,0.730,0.791,0.855 and 0.924.The coupling coordinative degree of Tourism industry-Regional economy-Ecological environment will come into harmonious development.
关键词
旅游产业/社会经济/生态环境/耦合协调Key words
Tourism industry/Regional economy/Ecological environment/Coupling coordination引用本文复制引用
基金项目
陕西省教育厅科研专项计划项目(15JK1118)
国家自然科学基金青年项目(41501159)
陕西省哲学社科规划项目(2015D030)
陕西理工学院科研计划项目(SLGKY14-26)
出版年
2017
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
维普
万方数据