龙井市苹果梨始花期预报模型研究
Study on Forecasting Model of Flowering Period of Apple Pear in Longjing City
金美玉 1赵晶 2付强2
作者信息
- 1. 吉林省龙井市气象局,吉林龙井133400
- 2. 吉林省延边州气象局,吉林延吉133000
- 折叠
摘要
利用延边龙井市1996—2016年苹果梨始花日期数据,通过分析苹果梨开花期日序数与1—4月每旬平均温度、降水、日照时数、20 cm地温、40 cm地温的相关关系,找出影响苹果梨始花期早晚的主要气象因子和关键时期,最终拟合出龙井市苹果梨始花日期预报模型,对模型的预报准确性进行验证,结果表明预报准确率满足业务要求.
Abstract
Using the date of the apple pear beginning flower during 1996 -2016,the relationship between the ordinal number of apple pear flowering period and the average temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, 20 cm ground temperature and 40 cm ground temperature from January to April were analyzed.The main meteorological factors and critical periods affecting the early stage of apple pear were found out.Fi-nally, the date forecasting model of apple pear in Longjing City was finally fitted, and the accuracy of the forecast was verified.The results showed that the forecast accuracy was satisfactory.
关键词
苹果梨花/始花期/气象因子/预测模型Key words
Apple pear flower/Initial flowering period/Meteorological factors/Prediction model引用本文复制引用
出版年
2017
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
维普
万方数据