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基于ARCGIS和IDRISI的荆州市土地利用变化及其影响分析

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以湖北省荆州市为研究对象,基于遥感影像数据和统计数据,采用土地利用类型转移模型、马可夫模型、生态足迹模型和灰色关联度分析等方法,分析了2019—2021年间的土地利用变化特征、驱动因素、影响效应和未来趋势,为该市的可持续发展提供参考.结果表明:①荆州市土地利用变化显著的是建设用地和裸地,体现了该市城市化水平的提升;土地利用变化的主要特征是耕地、湿地和水域减少,而林地和草地增加,体现了该市生态化水平的提高.②荆州市土地利用变化的主要驱动因素是人口增长、经济发展、城镇化进程和政策制度,这些因素通过影响土地利用需求和供给,促进了建设用地的扩张,抑制了耕地、湿地和水域的保持,有助于裸地的改善,支持了林地和草地的增加.科技进步也是一个重要的驱动因素,它通过提高土地利用效率和质量,改善了裸露地表覆盖状况,促进了植被恢复和生态建设.③荆州市土地利用变化对生态环境产生了负面影响.一方面,土地利用变化导致了耕地、湿地和水域等重要资源的减少,降低了生态系统的生产力和稳定性;另一方面,土地利用变化导致了建设用地等高耗能资源的增加,增加了生态系统的负荷和压力.这些影响导致了荆州市生态足迹的增加和生态承载力的减少,造成了生态赤字的扩大和生态失衡的加剧.④荆州市土地利用变化对社会经济产生了正面和负面的影响.一方面,土地利用变化促进了建设用地的增加,提高了经济发展水平和城镇居民生活水平,增强了城市的功能和竞争力.另一方面,土地利用变化抑制了耕地、湿地和水域的保持,降低了农业发展水平和农村居民生活水平,削弱了农业的基础和后盾.这些影响表明荆州市在研究期间存在着城乡发展不平衡的问题,需要协调好城乡之间的关系和利益.
Analysis of Spatio-temporal Dynamic Evolution of Land Use in Jingzhou City Based on ARCGIS and IDRISI
Based on remote sensing image data and statistical data,this paper analyzed the characteristics,driving factors,impact effects and future trends of land use change from 2019 to 2021 by using land use type transfer model,Markov model,ecological footprint model and grey correlation analysis,so as to provide reference for the sustainable development of Jingzhou City in Hubei Province. The results show that: ① The significant changes of land use are construction land and bare land in Jingzhou City,which reflects the improvement of the city's urban-ization level;the main characteristics of land use change are the decrease of cultivated land,wetland and water area,while the increase of forest land and grassland reflects the improvement of the ecological level of the city.②The main driving factors of land use change in Jingzhou are population growth,economic development,urbanization process and policy system.These factors promote the expansion of construction land by affecting the demand and supply of land use,inhibit the maintenance of cultivated land,wetland and water area,contribute to the improvement of bare land,and support the increase of woodland and grassland. Scientific and technological progress is also an important driver,which im-proves bare land cover by increasing the efficiency and quality of land use,promoting vegetation restoration and ecological construction.③Land use change in Jingzhou City has a negative impact on the ecological environment.On the one hand,land use change leads to the reduction of important resources such as arable land,wetlands and waters,reducing the productivity and stability of ecosystems.On the other hand,land use change leads to the increase of energy-intensive resources such as construction land,which increases the load and pressure on the ecosystem. These influences lead to the increase of ecological footprint and the decrease of ecological carrying capacity,the expansion of ecological deficit and the intensification of ecological imbalance in Jingzhou City.④Land use change in Jingzhou City has both positive and negative impacts on social economy.On the one hand,land use change promotes the increase of construction land,improves the level of economic development and the living standards of urban residents,and enhances the function and competitiveness of cities.On the other hand,land use change inhibits the maintenance of cultivated land,wetlands and water areas,reduces the level of agricultural development and the living standards of rural resi-dents,and weakens the foundation and backing of agriculture.These influences indicate that there is a problem of unbalanced urban and rural development in Jingzhou City during the study period,and it is necessary to coordinate the relationship and interests between urban and rural areas.

Jingzhou CityLand use changeRemote sensing monitoringDriving factorsInfluence effect

杨木秀

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长江大学经济与管理学院,湖北荆州 434023

荆州市 土地利用变化 遥感监测 驱动因素 影响效应

2024

安徽农业科学
安徽省农业科学院

安徽农业科学

影响因子:0.413
ISSN:0517-6611
年,卷(期):2024.52(9)