首页|基于DEA和Tobit模型的安徽省水资源利用效率测算与影响因素分析

基于DEA和Tobit模型的安徽省水资源利用效率测算与影响因素分析

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利用超效率SBM-DEA模型、DEA-Malmquist指数对2011—2020年安徽省水资源利用效率进行测算,并采用Tobit模型分析其影响因素.结果表明,2011—2020年安徽省水资源利用效率未达到有效水平,利用效率平均值从0.931波动下降为0.873,16个地市中仅有合肥、淮北、黄山的水资源利用效率达到DEA有效,其余13个城市的水资源利用效率均处于生产前沿面之下.安徽省水资源利用效率Malmquist指数平均值为0.981,总体处于下降阶段,技术效率变化、技术进步变化均阻碍了效率的上升;合肥、淮北、芜湖、铜陵、安庆和黄山的Malmquist指数平均值处于上升阶段,其余10个城市的Malmquist指数值均处于下降阶段.人均GDP、第一产业比重、农业用水比重因素均对安徽省水资源利用效率的提升呈现出显著的正向促进作用;而人均用水量、人均污水排放量则均呈现出显著负向作用.
Estimation and Analysis of Influencing Factors of Water Resource Use Efficiency in Anhui Province Based on DEA and Tobit Models
The superefficiency SBM-DEA model and DEA-Malmquist index were used to measure the water resource use efficiency in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020, and the Tobit model was used to analyze the influencing factors.The result showed that water resource use effi-ciency in Anhui Province has not reached the effective level, and the average value of water resource use efficiency fluctuates from 0.931 to 0.873,among the 16 cities, only Hefei, Huaibei and Huangshan achieve DEA efficiency in water use,and the remaining 13 cities, the water resource use efficiency is below the production frontier. The average Malmquist index of water resource use efficiency in Anhui Province is 0.981, which is generally in a declining stage,the change of technical efficiency and the change of technological progress have hindered the increase of water resources utilization efficiency in Anhui Province. The average Malmquist index of water resource use efficiency in Hefei, Huaibei, Wuhu, Tongling, Anqing and Huangshan are on the rise, showing a good growth trend, the remaining 10 cities are in the declining stage.The per capita GDP, the proportion of primary industry and the proportion of agricultural water use all have significant positive promoting effects on the improvement of water use efficiency in Anhui Province,both per capita water consumption and per capita sewage discharge have significant negative effects on water resources utilization efficiency.

Water resource use efficiencyDEA modelMalmquist indexTobit modelAnhui Province

李宝春

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安徽省(水利部淮河水利委员会)水利科学研究院,安徽合肥 230088

水资源利用效率 DEA模型 Malmquist指数 Tobit模型 安徽省

2024

安徽农业科学
安徽省农业科学院

安徽农业科学

影响因子:0.413
ISSN:0517-6611
年,卷(期):2024.52(11)