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济宁市水资源承载力分析及预测研究

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为更好地配置水资源、保持可持续发展,选取济宁市为特定的研究区域,选用变异系数-熵权-GM(1,1)组合研究方法对水资源承载力进行系统评价.结果表明:济宁地区2016-2021年与2022-2026年2个时段水资源承载力呈现出明显的经济-生态类型特征.2016-2021年生态环境用水率、万元农业增加值用水量、万元工业增加值用水量成为强影响因子;2022-2026年人均地区生产总值、人均生活用水量的权重有所上升.
Analysis and Prediction of Water Resource Carrying Capacity in Jining City Based on Coefficient of Variation Entropy Weight GM (1,1)
In order to better allocate water resources and maintain sustainable development,we selected Jining City as a specific research area and used the coefficient of variation entropy weight GM (1,1) research method to systematically evaluate the water resource carrying capacity. The results showed that the water resource carrying capacity system in the Jining area exhibited and will exhibit obvious economic ecological characteristics during the two periods of 2016-2021 and 2022-2026. From 2016 to 2021,the ecological environment water consumption rate,agricultural value-added water consumption per 10000 yuan,and industrial value-added water consumption per 10000 yuan had become strong influencing factors. From 2022 to 2026,the weight of per capita GDP and per capita domestic water consumption would increase,becoming strong influencing factors along with the top three.

Water resource carrying capacityCoefficient of variation methodEntropy weight methodGM(1,1)

史宏亮、杨晓彤、闫小龙、刘节升

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山东省鲁南地质工程勘察院,山东济宁272000

水资源承载力 变异系数法 熵权法 GM(1,1)

2024

安徽农业科学
安徽省农业科学院

安徽农业科学

影响因子:0.413
ISSN:0517-6611
年,卷(期):2024.52(18)