摘要
通过对宁夏回族自治区农业产业结构调整的经济效益进行定性定量分析研究,为该自治区农业产业结构优化调整和农业经济发展提供科学参考.运用灰色关联分析模型确定具体某一产业对宁夏农业总经济关联度大小,并进一步计算贡献度,采用综合比较优势指数计算主要农作物的比较优势.2004-2021年,宁夏回族自治区内种植业、林业、牧业、渔业及副业与农业经济关联度计算结果分别为0.907 2、0.617 5、0.825 4、0.797 8、0.825 2;对农业总产值的逐年贡献率分别为:-0.19%、-2.63%、-0.10%、-0.73%、-0.41%、-0.60%、-0.11%、-0.16%、-0.10%、-0.10%、-0.44%、-0.20%、-0.05%、-0.07%、-0.66%、-0.27%、-0.35%;稻谷、小麦、玉米、薯类和豆类综合比较优势指数最高数值为1.64、2.35、1.15、1.87、1.63,优势地区分别是石嘴山市、石嘴山市、吴忠市、固原市和固原市.种植业与农业经济关联度最强,表明种植业主要带动宁夏农业经济增长;农业产业结构调整对农业经济贡献度低,促进经济的效果不显著.
Abstract
Through the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the economic benefits of the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,it provides scientific reference for the optimization and adjustment of agricultural industrial structure and ag-ricultural economic development of the province.The grey relational analysis model is used to determine the correlation degree of a specific in-dustry to the overall agricultural economy of Ningxia,and further calculate the contribution degree,and use the comprehensive comparative ad-vantage index to calculate the comparative advantage of main crops.From 2004 to 2021,the calculated results of correlation degree between planting industry,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery and sideline industry and agricultural economy in Ningxia are 0.907 2,0.617 5,0.825 4,0.797 8 and 0.825,respectively.The annual contribution rates to the total agricultural output value are:-0.19％,-2.63％,-0.10％,-0.73％,-0.41％,-0.60％,-0.11％,-0.16％,-0.10％,-0.10％,-0.44％,-0.20％,-0.05％,-0.07％,-0.66％,-0.27,-0.35％;the highest RCCA values of rice,wheat,maize,potato and legume are 1.64,2.35,1.15,1.87 and 1.63,and the dominant areas are Shizuishan,Shizuishan,Wuzhong,Guyuan and Guyuan,respectively.The correlation between planting industry and agricultural economy is the strongest,indicating that planting industry mainly drives the agricultural economy growth of Ningxia.The contribution of agricultural indus-trial structure adjustment to agricultural economy is low,and the effect of promoting economy is not significant.
万方数据