安徽农业科学2025,Vol.53Issue(1) :51-56.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2025.01.012

CESI和GeoSoS-FLUS方法的渭河流域生态敏感性时空特征及预测分析

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Predictive Analysis of Ecological Sensitivity in the Weihe River Basin Using CESI and GeoSoS-FLUS Methods

王文佳 王利
安徽农业科学2025,Vol.53Issue(1) :51-56.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2025.01.012

CESI和GeoSoS-FLUS方法的渭河流域生态敏感性时空特征及预测分析

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Predictive Analysis of Ecological Sensitivity in the Weihe River Basin Using CESI and GeoSoS-FLUS Methods

王文佳 1王利1
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作者信息

  • 1. 辽宁师范大学,辽宁 大连 116029
  • 折叠

摘要

[目的]评估渭河流域的生态敏感性,揭示人类活动对其生态系统的影响,并预测未来生态敏感性的变化.[方法]以渭河流域为研究区进行综合生态敏感性分析,选取景观生态风险敏感性指数、生物多样性敏感性指数、水土流失敏感性指数作为研究指标,构建综合生态敏感性指数(CESI)对渭河流域20年来的生态状况进行评价,并利用GeoSoS-FLUS进行模拟与预测.[结果]渭河流域 2000-2020年生态敏感性变化较大,其中极度敏感的区域总面积整体呈下降趋势.渭河流域生态敏感性高的区域大多集中在西部、北部以及东部的小片区域.GeoSoS-FLUS模拟预测表明,2030年低敏感区和较低敏感区变化较小,且这些区域大多属于自然保护地带,距离人类活动区较远,变化不明显;中度、重度敏感区面积相比2020年有所减少,极度敏感区面积有所增加.[结论]20年间渭河流域的生态情况发生了很大改善.

Abstract

[Objective]To evaluate the ecological sensitivity of the Weihe River Basin,reveal the impact of human activities on its ecosystem,and predict future changes in ecological sensitivity.[Method]A comprehensive ecological sensitivity analysis was conducted in the Weihe River Basin,selecting landscape ecological risk sensitivity index,biodiversity sensitivity index and soil erosion sensitivity index as research indica-tors,a comprehensive ecological sensitivity index(CESI)was constructed to evaluate the ecological status of the Weihe River Basin over the past 20 years,and GeoSoS-FLUS were used for simulation and prediction.[Result]The ecological sensitivity of the Weihe River Basin had un-dergone significant changes from 2000 to 2020,with the total area of extremely sensitive areas was decreased.The areas with high ecological sensitivity in the Weihe River Basin were mostly concentrated in the west,north and small areas in east.The simulation and prediction of cellu-lar automaton showed that the changes in low sensitivity areas and lower sensitivity areas will be relatively small by 2030,and most of these ar-eas belong to nature reserves,which are far away from human activity areas and have not undergone significant changes;The area of moderately and severely sensitive areas may decrease compared to 2020,while the area of extremely sensitive areas may increase.[Conclusion]The eco-logical situation in the Weihe River Basin has greatly improved over the past 20 years.

关键词

生态敏感性/时空特征/CESI/GeoSoS-FLUS/渭河流域

Key words

Ecological sensitivity/Spatiotemporal characteristics/CESI/GeoSoS-FLUS/Weihe River Basin

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出版年

2025
安徽农业科学
安徽省农业科学院

安徽农业科学

影响因子:0.413
ISSN:0517-6611
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