首页|基于绿色索洛模型的韶关市农业碳全要素生产率框架构建及减排潜力估计

基于绿色索洛模型的韶关市农业碳全要素生产率框架构建及减排潜力估计

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在理论上构建了包含农业碳排放和碳吸收的正负环境要素在内的"绿色索洛模型",考察能源资源投入和碳排污染对农业经济增长的影响与约束,以消除农业经济增长中的环境代价.2011-2021年韶关市面板数据进行实证检验,运用非期望产出的超效率SBM模型测度韶关市的农业碳全要素生产率,利用碳减排潜力模型测度韶关市农业碳减排潜力和潜力规模.结果表明:韶关市农业碳全要素生产效率均值为1.024,农业碳排放总量过剩,规模效率是制约农业碳全要素生产率提升的关键;韶关市农业碳减排潜力在波动中整体呈现上升趋势,农业碳减排潜力年均规模为7.254万t,农业碳减排仍有较大改进空间.据此提出补齐规模效率不佳短板、制定切实可行的碳减排措施的提升韶关市农业碳全要素生产率和持续推进农业碳减排的政策建议.
Framework Construction of Agricultural Carbon Total Factor Productivity and Emission Reduction Potential Estimation in Shaoguan City Based on the Green Solow Model
This paper theoretically constructs a"green Solow model"incorporating positive and negative environmental elements including ag-ricultural carbon emissions and carbon sequestration,considering the impact and constraints of energy and resource inputs and carbon emis-sions on agricultural economic growth to mitigate environmental costs associated with agricultural economic growth.Empirical testing is conduc-ted using panel data from Shaoguan City for the period 2011-2021.The super-efficiency SBM model,incorporating non-expected output,is employed to measure the agricultural carbon total factor productivity of Shaoguan City,while the carbon emission reduction potential model is used to estimate the carbon emission reduction potential and scale of Shaoguan City.The research findings are as follows:The average agricul-tural carbon total factor productivity in Shaoguan City is 1.024,indicating an excess of agricultural carbon emissions,with scale efficiency be-ing the key constraint on the improvement of agricultural carbon total factor productivity.The carbon emission reduction potential in Shaoguan City shows an overall increasing trend despite fluctuations,with an average annual scale of 72,540 tons,indicating significant room for im-provement in agricultural carbon emission reduction.Based on these findings,it is suggested to address the shortcomings of scale efficiency and formulate practical carbon emission reduction measures to enhance the agricultural carbon total factor productivity in Shaoguan City and sustain-ably promote agricultural carbon emission reduction.

Carbon total factor productivityGreen Solow modelSBM modelEmission reduction potential

刘浩、刘芮萌

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韶关学院商学院,广东 韶关 512005

韶关学院粤北乡村振兴研究中心,广东 韶关 512005

碳全要素生产率 绿色索洛模型 SBM模型 减排潜力

2025

安徽农业科学
安徽省农业科学院

安徽农业科学

影响因子:0.413
ISSN:0517-6611
年,卷(期):2025.53(2)