第19届女子手球世锦赛攻防技术的回归分析
The Regression Analysis on Handball Attack/Defense Skills at 19th Women's World Championship
孙影 1周燃1
作者信息
- 1. 安徽师范大学体育学院,安徽芜湖241002
- 折叠
摘要
采用不同回归分析方法,对第19届女子手球世锦赛110场比赛的官方统计数据进行分析,建立预测女子手球比赛攻守技术与净胜分的最佳预测模式,比较回归分析与教练评价结果,在此基础上分析中国队技战术特点,为科学训练提供理论和实践依据.结果表明:逐步回归分析与Mallows Cp法所选入的13个技术指标,解释女子手球赛净胜分的变异量为90.9％,模型可以作为预测女子手球比赛净胜分的最佳组合；教练评价与两种回归分析所选入的13个变量有11个相同,但两者在变量重要性排序上有较明显分歧；强化快攻、防守,减少进攻失误应是中国队今后训练的重点.
Abstract
In order to set up the best model to predict the technology and the net game scores by using various regression analysis methods at 19th Women's World Championship, this paper analyzed 110 matches from the official records of women's handball competitions, and compared the difference, between the variables chosen by regression analysis and coaches' professional evaluations. Based on these, the paper discussed the feather of tactics and strategy of Chinese women' s handball team to offer reference for scientific training. The result showed that the stepwise regression analysis and the Mallows Cp method had both entered 13 same variables, which could explain that the variance of the net game scores was 90. 9%. Of the 13 variables from the two methods, 11 were unanimous with the coach variables, and there was significant difference order of the variables entered by the statistical methods and the ones entered by the coaches. Some countermeasures and suggestions to Chinese team were put forward, strengthening ability of defense and fast break; reducing technical faults should be focused in training.
关键词
女子手球/攻防技术/逐步回归分析/Mallows/Cp法Key words
women's handball/attack/defense skills/stepwise regression analysis/Mallows Cp引用本文复制引用
基金项目
安徽省高校省级自然科学重点研究项目(KJ2011A147)
出版年
2012
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据