安徽省近20年森林资源时空变化及其驱动因素分析
Spatiotemporal Changes and Driving Factors of Forest Resources in Anhui Province in the Past 20 years
王晶 1徐培培1
作者信息
- 1. 安徽师范大学 地理与旅游学院,安徽 芜湖 241002;资源环境与地理信息工程安徽省工程技术研究中心,安徽 芜湖 241002
- 折叠
摘要
安徽省森林是长三角地区重要的生态屏障和碳库,探究其时空变化及驱动因素对实现长三角地区生态绿色一体化发展具有重要意义.基于MODIS数据产品、气象再分析资料和森林清查结果等数据,利用趋势分析、残差分析与情景评估等方法,分析了2001-2020年安徽森林的分布和长势变化及其驱动因素.结果表明:(1)2001-2020年安徽省森林空间分布呈扩张趋势,但不同类型森林的扩张速度存在差异,混交林在森林中的占比以-0.29%/a的速度显著下降(p<0.001),森林类型组成存在趋于单一化的风险;(2)2001-2020年安徽省森林长势整体呈改善的趋势,森林EVI以0.0020/a的速度显著上升(p<0.01);(3)气候变化对2001-2020年安徽地区森林扩张和长势增加的贡献率分别为4.64%、25.25%,明显低于人类活动(95.36%、74.75%),意味着人类活动是安徽地区森林变化的主要驱动力.
Abstract
Forests in Anhui Province,China,serve as crucial ecological barriers and carbon pool for the Yangtze River Delta region.The exploration of their spatiotemporal changes and driving factors is of great significance for achieving green and integrated ecological development of the region.Based on MODIS data product,meteorolog-ical reanalysis data and forest check results the distribution and growth changes of forests in Anhui Province from 2001 to 2020 and their driving factors were explored in this study by trend analysis,residuals analysis and scenar-io assessment.The results show that:(1)The spatial distribution of forests in Anhui Province showed an expand-ing trend from 2001 to 2020.However,different types of forests exhibited varying speed of expansion.The pro-portion of mixed forests experienced a significant decline at a rate of-0.29%per year(p<0.001).There was a risk of forest type composition tending towards uniformity.(2)An increasing trend in forest growth was observed in Anhui Province from 2001 to 2020,with a significant rise in forest EVI at a rate of 0.0020 per year(p<0.01).(3)The contribution rates of climate change to forest expansion and growth increase in Anhui Province from 2001 to 2020 were 4.64%and 25.25%,respectively,significantly lower than that of human activities(95.36%for forest expansion and 74.75%for forest growth increase),indicating that human activities were the primary driving force for forest changes increase in Anhui Province.
关键词
森林/遥感/时空变化/驱动因素/残差分析Key words
Forest/remote sensing/spatiotemporal change/driving factors/residual analysis引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(42001348)
安徽省重点研究与开发计划项目(2022l07020028)
安徽省自然科学基金青年项目(2008085QD167)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据