The Evolution of Spatial Pattern of Population Birth Rate in Counties of Anhui Province and the Mechanism of Influence
The birth rate is an important indicator for measuring the status of population reproduction and has a profound impact on regional sustainable development.Based on the data from the fifth,sixth,and seventh nation-al censuses,this study comprehensively applied methods such as spatial autocorrelation and geodetector to ex-plore the spatial pattern evolution and influencing factors of county-level birth rates in Anhui Province from 2000 to 2020.Furthermore,the influencing mechanism was analyzed from the perspective of"fertility intention-fertility behavior-fertility level".The results show that:(1)There is significant spatial heterogeneity in the birth rate,and the spatial pattern has gone through a change process of"southeast to northwest gradient increment-north high south low-'U'type low value area and inverted'C'type high value area adjacent to the north-south distribution".Most of the districts and counties in northern and western Anhui experienced a relatively rapid increase and then decrease in birth rate,while most of the districts and counties in central and southern Anhui experienced a continu-ous decline in birth rate.(2)There is a significant positive spatial correlation among birth rates,and the agglomera-tion trend first strengthens and then weakens.Local spatial correlation types are mainly high-high agglomeration and low-low agglomeration.(3)The center of gravity of the birth rate is generally located in the northwest direc-tion of the geometric center,showing a tendency to move from northwest to southeast.(4)The factor detection re-sults show that regional culture and urbanization level are the main influencing factors,followed by per capita dis-posable income of urban residents,proportion of women of childbearing age(15-49 years old),elderly support ra-tio,and average sales price of commercial housing.The interactive detection results indicate that the spatial distri-bution pattern of the birth rate in Anhui Province is affected by multiple factors such as economy,society,popula-tion,and culture,and the driving force of the interaction between two factors is stronger than that of independent single factors.The research conclusions will provide reference for the formulation of differentiated fertility poli-cies by local governments.
万方数据
维普
