Epidemiological characteristics and trend forecast of viral hepatitis C in Bengbu City from 2012 to 2021
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis C in Bengbu City from 2012 to 2021 and predict the future incidence trends.Methods Descriptive epidemiology method was applied to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis C in Bengbu City from 2012 to 2021,which obtained through the hepatitis C surveillance module of Information System for Disease Control and Prevention sponsored by China Center for Disease Control and Prevention,the exponential smoothing method was employed to establish optimal prediction model.Minimum root mean square error was ap-plied to predict the trend of hepatitis C in Bengbu from 2022 to 2023.Results From 2012 to 2021,a total of 3 638 hepati-tis C cases were reported in Bengbu City,1 908 cases in males and 1 730 cases in females,with a sex ratio of 1.10∶1.The average annual incidence growth rate was 8.76％,showed a fluctuating upward trend(x2trend=62.530,P＜0.001);most cases were reported from 40 to 49 years age group,accounting for 23.17％of the total number(843/3 638);cases were reported at all occupations,farmers'accounting for 50.38％of the total cases(1 833/3 638)with the most occupation reported;the difference in the proportion of reported hepatitis C cases by month was statistically significant(x2=28.700,P=0.003),A-pril had the highest number of cases reported,with 342 cases in total;the top three districts(counties)in terms of reported cases were Wuhe County(1 050 cases,28.86％),Yuhui District(643,17.67％)and Bengshan District(600,16.49％).The Winter summation model was followed to predict the reported incidence of hepatitis C in Bengbu City from 2022 to 2023,the predicted annual incidence was 14.30/100 000 and 16.44/100 000,respectively.Conclusion The incidence of hepatitis C in Bengbu City was rising from 2012 to 2021,and the winter summation model was promising in predicting the incidence trend of hepatitis C in Bengbu City.According to the results of the prediction model,surveillance,detection and standardized treatment of hepatitis C should be strengthened.
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