Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of scarlet fever in Hefei City from 2011 to 2023
Objective To understand the characteristics and epidemic trend of scarlet fever in Hefei City,and to provide scientific prevention and control strategies and measures.Methods Download the data 4 340 cases of scarlet fever cases in Hefei City from 2011 to 2023 from the China Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System,organize and statistically analyze them using Excel,and construct an ARIMA model for predicting the incidence trend.Results A total of 4 340 cases of scarlet fever were reported in Hefei City from 2011 to 2023,with an average annual reported incidence rate of 4.23/100 000,and no deaths were reported.The overall trend curve for 2023 was similar to that of 2011-2016,2017-2019,and 2020-2022,with two peaks occurring in May June and November December.Since 2011,there had been a peak outbreak every 2-4 years.From 2011 to 2023,scarlet cases were reported in 9 counties(cities and districts)in Hefei City,and the annual average reported incidence rate in municipal districts(705/100 000)was higher than that in rural areas(1.62/100 000).The high incidence of scarlet fever in Hefei City was among children aged 3 to 9 years old.The average annual reported incidence rate of male(5.22/100 000)was higher than that of female(3.19/100 000).ARIMA model pre-dicted that the monthly reported incidence rate of scarlet fever in Hefei City in 2024(3.67/100 000)and the number of ca-ses(354 cases)would increase compared with 2023,in January,May-July and December,the reported incidence rate had a fluctuating peak.Conclusion In 2024,the incidence of scarlet fever in Hefei City may show an upward trend.It is recom-mended to strengthen multi-channel monitoring and early warning,pay attention to the population of children in lower grades of primary schools and preschool children in urban areas,and be alert to the risk of a resurgence of the epidemic in schools during the peak period of the epidemic.
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