Analysis of trends in probability of premature death and forecasts for major chronic diseases in Jiujiang City from 2015 to 2023
Objective To analyze the trends in mortality of four major chronic diseases and the probability of premature death in Jiujiang City from 2015 to 2023,and to predict the goal achievement of"Healthy China 2030".Methods The death data from the death cause monitoring areas in Jiujiang City from 2015 to 2023 were collected.The crude mortality rate,standardized mortality rate,probability of premature death,annual percentage change(APC),and average annual growth rate of the four major chronic diseases were calculated to predict the probability of premature death in Jiujiang City.Results The mortality rate of four major chronic diseases in Jiujiang City from 2015 to 2023 was 437.41/100 000,and the standardized mortality rate was 551.60/100 000.The overall(APC=-2.268％,P=0.019)and females(APC=-3.306％,P=0.003)early mortality rate of four major chronic diseases showed a downward trend.The probability of premature death from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in the whole population(APC=-3.520％,P=0.004)and in females(APC=-6.618％,P＜0.001)showed a decreasing trend.Conclusion Jiujiang City should pay more attention to the pre-vention and treatment of chronic diseases in males,especially malignant tumors,chronic respiratory diseases,and diabetes,and strive to achieve the goal of"Healthy China 2030".
Major chronic diseasesPremature deathTrend analysisJiujiang City
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
