Research on the Impact of Real Estate De-stocking on Residents'Consump-tion under Supply-side Structural Reform
There is a significant substitution relationship between household spending on housing and non-housing consumption.Real estate regulation policies significantly heterogeneous household housing spending,which has an important impact on residential consumption.Based on Chinese urban and inter-provincial panel data and the Keynesian absolute income hypothesis from 2013-2019,this paper quantitatively exam-ines the effects and mechanisms of real estate destocking policies affecting residential consumption in the context of supply-side structural re-form.The results of the empirical analysis show that the destocking policy has a significant negative effect on residential consumption,with a greater impact on regions and cities with high level of economic development and a significant depressive effect on the consumption of non-sub-sistence goods.The mechanism test suggests that this effect comes more from the crowding-out product generated by destocking.To break the"impossible triangle"of stabilizing housing prices,promoting consumption and destocking,and achieving stable economic development,it is necessary to adhere to the basic policy of"no speculation in housing",expand the supply of subsidized housing,curb speculative demand in the real estate market,and gradually expand the scope of the real estate.The size of the pilot real estate tax should be progressively expanded.
real estate destockingresidential consumptioncrowding out effectwealth effect
万方数据
维普
