首页|基于Autoformer的铝电解电压偏差预测方法研究

基于Autoformer的铝电解电压偏差预测方法研究

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电耗是吨铝成本中一项非常重要的生产指标,而电压偏差则是铝电解生产过程中电耗管理的关键点,因此本文基于中国铝业某铝厂2015—2020年的铝电解数据,对电压偏差的影响特征和预测展开研究.首先,利用分布式梯度增强库(eXtreme Gradient Boosting,XGBoost)算法深度挖掘电压偏差的关联性,并根据相关性得分选取与电压偏差相关性较大的特征.在此基础上,本文构建了基于Autoformer模型的电压偏差预测方法,对2020年前半年的电压偏差数据进行预测,取得了较好的预测效果.将电压偏差的预测结果应用于实际的电解铝生产指导中,可以实现电压偏差的预警,及时调整生产决策,从而减少能耗、稳定电解槽况、延长槽寿命.
Research on Aluminum Electrolytic Voltage Deviation Prediction Method Based on Autoformer
Electricity consumption is a very important production indicator in the cost per ton of aluminum, and voltage deviation is the key point of power consumption management in the production process of aluminum electrolysis, so this paper studies the impact characteristics and prediction of voltage deviation based on the aluminum electrolysis data of an aluminum plant in Chinalco from 2015 to 2020.Firstly, the XGBoost algorithm is used to dig out the correlation of voltage deviation, and the features with greater correlation with voltage deviation are selected according to the correlation score.On this basis, a voltage deviation prediction method based on Autoformer model is constructed to predict the voltage deviation data in the first half of 2020 , and a good prediction effect is obtained.Applying the prediction results of voltage deviation to the actual electrolytic aluminum production guidance can realize the early warning of voltage deviation and adjust production decisions in time, so as to reduce energy consumption, stabilize the condition of the electrolytic cell, and prolong the life of the cell.

aluminum electrolysisAutoformervoltage deviationcorrelation analysisforecasting methods

曹丹阳、张帅、张艳芳

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北方工业大学 信息学院,北京100144

中铝郑州有色金属研究院有限公司,郑州450041

铝电解 Autoformer 电压偏差 相关性分析 预测方法

2024

北方工业大学学报
北方工业大学

北方工业大学学报

影响因子:0.368
ISSN:1001-5477
年,卷(期):2024.36(2)