In social networks,studying the patterns of rumors and counter-rumor in propagations process can help to predict and understand the trend of rumor spreading and design optional inferrentions to guide the public option.Here,we proposed a novel emotion-based S/E-F(D)-I(Susceptible/Educated-Forwarding(Defuting)-Immune)two-stage rumor/counter-rumor propagation dynamics model.Our approach was based on the traditonal SFI(Susceptible-Forwarding-Immune)model,which was used to investigate the propagation process of rumor information and the corresponding counter-rumor information separately.However,our two stage model allowed us to examine the dynamic process of different polaritiese emotions by considering emotional factors in the rumor propagation at the first stage,and then incorporate trust mechanism to quantify the impact of confidence crisis on the dissemination of counter-rumor information at the second stage.Our model also incorparated the educated population(E)at both the 1st and 2nd stage to explore the influence of education and personal knowledge level on information dissemination in the relevant populations.We applied this constructed S/E-F(D)-I dynamics model to numerically fit and simulate some real case events on Sina Weibo to recover the real public opinion propagation process,and to validate the model.We perform sensitivity analysis to determine significant factors affecting rumor propagation in order to suppport the formulation of decision-making strategies for rumor management.
information propagation dynamicsrumor and counter-rumortwo-stage modelpublic sentiment
NETL
NSTL
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