Dynamic analysis of potential habitat of alien forest invasive species under climate change scenarios: A case study of Dendroctonus frontalis
The effective measure to minimize the damage of invasive species is to block the potential invasive species from entering into suitable areas. With global climate change, the spatial pattern of invasive species will also change. Two American states, Arizona and New Mexico, which were affected by southern pine beetle (SPB) ( Dendroctonus frontalis ) , were chosen as the case study area. Environmental variables were extracted from the Daymet datasets, and the ecological niche modeling method of maximum entropy method (Maxent) was introduced to predict potential habitat for the invasive species, together with the generation of distribution maps under three climate change scenarios in 2000,2050 and 2100 using the same model. Results showed that temperature seasonality and precipitation amount in the wettest quarter were the two most important environmental variables affecting the potential habitat of the invasive pest,contributing 46.7% and 32.4% , respectively. With the increase of temperature, suitability probability of SPB would decrease from 0.067 7 to 0.064 0 and the infected area would shrink from 1.2% to 0.5% (P >0.5),contrasting with the increase of suitability probability in infected area from 0.548 9 to 0.610 7. With the increase in annual temperature, the potential distribution of SPB would also shift from central Arizona to the southeast part of New Mexico, coinciding with the change of precipitation center from west to east in the wettest quarter.
alien invasive speciespotential habitatclimate changesouthern pine beetle
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
