首页|中国粮食安全的影响因素评估与测度研究

中国粮食安全的影响因素评估与测度研究

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[目的]为了科学评估粮食安全体系,保障粮食安全。[方法]采用SEM结构方程测算了 1978-2022年中国粮食的发展水平、影响因素以及影响因素间的关系,在粮食安全总指数的基础上对未来10年的粮食安全进行预测。[结果]结果表明:经济因素和生产因素对粮食安全具有显著的促进作用,生产因素和环境因素对经济因素具有推动作用。1978-2010年粮食安全指数呈负值,2011-2021年转为正值,且2021年指数值最高。[结论]未来粮食安全状态持续上升,各影响因素发展存在差异,需要针对不同的影响因素,采取针对性的措施,以实现粮食安全状态的全面提升。
Evaluation and measurement of influencing factors of food security in China
[Objective]To evaluate food security system scientifically and ensure food security.[Methods]The structural equa-tion of SEM was used to estimate the level of grain development in China from 1978 to 2022,the influencing factors and the re-lationship among the influencing factors,and the food security in the next 10 years was predicted based on the total index of food security.[Results]The results showed that economic factors and production factors had a significant role in promoting food security,and production factors and environmental factors had a significant role in promoting economic factors.The food security index was negative from 1978 to 2010,and turned positive from 2011 to 2021,with the highest index value in 2021.[Conclusion]The state of food security continues to rise in the future,and there are differences in the development of various influencing factors.It is necessary to take targeted measures according to different influencing factors to realize the overall im-provement of food security.

food securityinfluencing factorsfactor analysisSEMgrey prediction

袁世一、李干琼

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中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京 100081

粮食安全 影响因素 因子分析 SEM 灰色预测

国家自然科学基金中国农业科学院农业信息研究所基本科研业务费

62103418JBYW-AII-2023-07

2024

北京农学院学报
北京农学院

北京农学院学报

影响因子:0.539
ISSN:1002-3186
年,卷(期):2024.39(1)
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