不同表观温度水平下大气细颗粒物暴露对人群非意外死亡的影响
Impact of fine particulate matter exposure on non-accidental mortality under different apparent temperature levels
王裕新 1曹茹 1黄婧 1Pitakchon Ponsawansong 2Benjawan Tawatsupa 3潘小川 1Tippawan Pra-pamontol 2李国星1
作者信息
- 1. 北京大学公共卫生学院劳动卫生与环境卫生学系,北京 100191
- 2. Environment and Health Research Unit,Re-search Institute for Health Sciences,Chiang Mai University,Chiang Mai 50200,Thailand
- 3. Health Impact Assessment Division,Department of Health,Ministry of Public Health,Bangkok 11000,Thailand
- 折叠
摘要
目的:评估空气动力学直径≤2.5μm的大气细颗粒物(particulate matter,PM2.5)暴露在不同表观温度水平下对人群非意外死亡的影响,进一步探究表观温度的效应修饰作用.方法:采用时间序列研究,选取中国的天津和宁波两个城市、泰国的曼谷和清迈两个城市作为研究地点,以表观温度作为温度的暴露指标,通过对阈值温度的定量估计,根据阈值温度对应的污染物水平进行分层,采用广义泊松(Poisson)相加模型来评估不同温度水平下PM2.5暴露与人群非意外死亡之间的关联.结果:天津、宁波、曼谷和清迈4个亚洲城市在研究期间PM2.5的平均浓度分别为(73.6±35.6)、(48.0±32.1)、(33.5±28.4)和(32.6±28.6)μg/m3,日均非意外死亡人数分别为 148、57、28和8人.广义泊松相加模型分析显示,天津市滞后O d的PM2.5浓度每升高10 μg/m3,非意外死亡人数增加0.43％(95％CI:0.33％～0.54％);宁波市滞后2 d的PM2.5每升高10 μg/m3,非意外死亡人数增加0.27％(95％CI:0.08％～0.46％).天津市在高温水平下,空气污染的死亡影响更大,而宁波和曼谷在低温时PM2.5的死亡效应更明显.不同温度水平共污染物模型中,PM2.5的死亡效应相对稳健.结论:大气细颗粒物暴露对人群非意外死亡有不利影响,应进一步注意控制空气污染,表观温度可能对PM2.5的死亡影响产生效应修饰作用,且在不同温度带的效应有所差异,应根据地区差异建立保护性政策,同时在探究空气污染和气候变化的相互影响方面应予更多关注.
Abstract
Objective:To assess the impact of exposure to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μm(PM2.5)on non-accidental mortality under different apparent temperature levels and to further explore the modification effect of apparent temperature.Methods:This study used time-series design.Tianjin and Ningbo from China,Bangkok and Chiang Mai from Thailand were selected as the re-search sites,and the apparent temperature was applied as the exposure index.Through the quantitative estimation of the threshold temperature,the corresponding pollutant concentration was divided into high and low levels,and the generalized Poisson additive model was used to evaluate the association between PM2.5 exposure and non-accidental death of residents at different temperature levels.Results:The ave-rage concentrations of PM2.5 in Tianjin,Ningbo,Bangkok,and Chiang Mai during the study period were(73.6±35.6),(48.0±32.1),(33.5±28.4)and(32.6±28.6)μg/m3,respectively;the average daily non-accidental death counts were 148,57,28,and 8.The analysis of the generalized Poisson addi-tive model showed that the daily non-accidental death counts increased by 0.43％(95％CI:0.33％-0.54％)per 10 μg/m3 increase of PM2.5 in lag 0 day in Tianjin of China;0.27％(95％CI:0.08％-0.46％)per 10 μg/m3 increase of PM2.5 in lag 2 days in Ningbo of China.The effect was magnified in high temperature levels in Tianjin and in low temperatures in Ningbo and Bangkok.The mortality effect of PM2 5 in various temperature levels stayed still in co-pollutant regression models.Conclusion:Exposure to fine particulate matter had an adverse effect on non-accidental mortality,which reminded us to give further attention to the pollution control.The findings also indicated that apparent temperature might modify mortality effects of PM2 .5 and the modification effect varied in different regions.Protective policies due to regional differences should be made and more scientific and social attention on mutual effect of air pollution and climate change needs to be appealed.
关键词
PM2.5/表观温度/死亡率/效应修饰Key words
PM2.5/Apparent temperature/Mortality/Effect modification引用本文复制引用
基金项目
中国国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目(41761144056)
泰国自然科学基金和研究基金会国际合作与交流项目(RDG6030019)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据