This paper studies the risk transfer and benefit allocation issues regarding agricultural industry development.Focusing on the rubber industry,it investigates the mechanisms behind the"insurance+futures"model in China's agricultural supply chain.Then,utilizing Monte Carlo simulations and data analysis,it evaluates dual effects of"insurance+futures"on risk exter-nalization and supply chain coordination.The results show that its risk transfer efficiency is constrained by the volatility of futures prices and their nonlinear relationship with option prices.Strategies such as incorporating Gamma hedging or increasing rebalance frequency can help to mitigate risk exposures,thereby forming a closed loop of risk management"from farmers to investors".Fur-thermore,its effect on supply chain coordination is influenced by farmers'risk aversion and the insurance coverage level against the price risk.Entering the market at high price levels and increasing subsidy ratios would contribute to bolstering farmers'pro-duction enthusiasm and promoting the optimal state of supply chain coordination.This study expands the"insurance+futures"pro-agricultural theories,explores on the"benefit sharing and risk transfer"mechanism in agricultural product supply chain.It provides valuable insights for further advancing financial subsidy efficiency and enhancing on the effectiveness of related projects.
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