保险研究2024,Issue(11) :24-37.DOI:10.13497/j.cnki.is.2024.11.003

风险环境下的个体风险偏好与时间偏好——基于随机酬金实验的研究

Individual Risk Preferences and Time Preferences in Risky Environments—A Study Based on a Random Reward Experiment

李紫繁 秦雪征 易君健
保险研究2024,Issue(11) :24-37.DOI:10.13497/j.cnki.is.2024.11.003

风险环境下的个体风险偏好与时间偏好——基于随机酬金实验的研究

Individual Risk Preferences and Time Preferences in Risky Environments—A Study Based on a Random Reward Experiment

李紫繁 1秦雪征 2易君健3
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作者信息

  • 1. 北京大学经济学院
  • 2. 北京大学经济学院;北京大学全球健康发展研究院
  • 3. 北京大学国家发展研究院
  • 折叠

摘要

个体在风险环境中如何决策是行为经济学领域的重要问题,相关研究有助于在当前多种经济风险交织叠加的背景下进一步释放居民消费潜能、提振企业家投资信心.但风险环境与个体风险偏好、时间偏好之间存在复杂关系,可能存在多种潜在影响机制.本文设计了一个搭载在抽样调查问卷上的随机酬金实验,利用实验和抽样调查数据,研究实际风险环境对个体风险偏好及时间偏好的影响.本文发现:个体面临高于自身风险偏好水平的风险冲击时,风险偏好有所增强,并表现出更高的耐心水平;而低于个体自身风险偏好水平的风险冲击会导致其更加厌恶风险,风险回避倾向增强,并且耐心水平下降.此外,积极情绪和记忆机制是本次实验中个体偏好发生改变的重要渠道.本文为理解当前居民消费和企业投资决策提供了新的视角,并为优化相应经济政策提供了有益参考.

Abstract

How individuals make decisions in risky environments is a critical issue in behavioral economics.Research in this area is crucial for unlocking consumer spending potential and boosting entrepreneurial investment confidence,especially amid the cur-rent complex economic risk landscape.The relationship between risk environments and individual risk and time preferences is in-tricate,potentially involving multiple influencing mechanisms.This study employs a random reward experiment embedded within a survey questionnaire to investigate the impact of actual risk environments on individual risk and time preferences.The findings re-veal that when individuals encounter risk shocks exceeding their inherent risk preference level,their risk tolerance increases and they exhibit greater patience.Conversely,when faced with risk shocks below their inherent risk preference level,individuals be-come more risk-averse and their patience decreases.Additionally,positive emotion and memory play significant roles in altering in-dividual preferences in this experiment.This study offers new insights into consumer spending and business investment decisions and provides valuable guidance for optimizing related economic policies.

关键词

风险环境/风险偏好/时间偏好/随机控制试验

Key words

risk environment/risk preference/time preference/RCT

引用本文复制引用

出版年

2024
保险研究
中国保险学会

保险研究

CSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.072
ISSN:1004-3306
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