A Research on the Impacts of Price Level and Economic Growth Factor on the Trends of the Chinese Mortality——Based on the CPI and per capita GDP
This paper studies the impact of GDP per capita and CPI on Chinese mortality rate,using the mortality data from 1998 to 2020 sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics,China Demographic Yearbook and China Population and Employment Sta-tistical Yearbook.To avoid the inference pitfall of the classic Lee-Carter model,this study employs the Q.Liu method to establish the Niu-Melenberg model embedded with the GDP per capita indicator,and the Ma-Boonen model embedded with the CPI indica-tor.Then,it compares the predictive performance of these three models on Chinese mortality rate.The in-sample results reveal that models embedded with economic factors significantly outperform the classic Lee-Carter model,with the Niu-Melenberg model in-corporating GDP per capita showing the best performance.In out-of-sample comparisons,both models embedded with the economic factor show better performance than the classic Lee-Carter model,and the Ma-Boonen model which considers CPI presents a lower forecasting error in most cases.In comparing long-term population life expectancy results,the Ma-Boonen model is more reasona-ble,while the Niu-Melenberg model presents overly optimistic expectations in predicting China's population life expectancy com-pared to others.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
