Analysis and Assessment of Human Risk Factors in Ship Navigation Based on STPA-BN
Human factors are the most important factors causing marine accidents.In order to investigate the cause and effect of human risk factors,the"STPA-BN"model is introduced based on the ship accident report issued by the China Maritime Safety Administration.First,the STPA method is used to identify the unsafe control behavior in ship navigation,and twelve human risk factors are extracted based on the accident report.In the Bayesian visualization software Netica,taking human risk factors as nodes,using the internal causal relationship of risk factors and structural learning function to build the Bayesian network topology.Then the Bayesian network model of human risk factors in ship navigation after the quantification of accident report and the network parameter learning is obtained.After verifying the accuracy of the model,seven prominent human risk factors and three core cause chains of accidents by using the inference function of Bayesian network has been obtained.
ship navigation safetyhuman risk factorssystems-theoretic process analysis(STPA)Bayesian network(BN)ship accident report
万方数据
维普
