首页|基于概率统计的可拓学分析方法在边坡岩体质量分级中的应用

基于概率统计的可拓学分析方法在边坡岩体质量分级中的应用

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在可拓学理论基础上添加了统计学思想,形成了一种基于概率统计的可拓学分析方法.以延边州和龙市红旗河引水工程项目为例,通过Matlab软件,采用蒙特卡洛模拟,将每个对象对应的因素值进行模拟,产生出服从一定分布的随机待评物元;再利用岩体边坡稳定性等级和影响因子,构造出经典域和节域物元,借助物元和可拓中的关联函数,建立起分析对象隶属于不同类别的概率值.利用此概率值,确定边坡岩体质量分级,并提出对工程设计和建设中的支护建议.对象2的最大概率值所属的类别为Ⅱ类,但对象2属于Ⅲ类的概率值为27%,由于工程采样存在的随机性,将对象2划分为Ⅲ类可以确保其安全性.
Slope Rock Mass Quality Classification Based on Extenics Analysis of Probability Statistics
On basis of extenics theory the article adds thought of statistics and forms a method which based on extenics analysis of probability statistics. Being taken as examples of Yanbian Prefecture and Helong City project, the appraisal stochastic elemnts are produced by means of simulating the corresponding factors for each object using Monte-Carlo in Matlab. Then the classical matter-element and extensional matter-element are set up for the stability of rock mass of slope and influence factor, and the possibility of objects are worked out by element and correlation function. The Class of rock mass of slope are determined by the statistics of possibility, and hence some reasonable proposals are put forward. The possibility of object 2 belongs to class [H is 27 percent. Even though its maxium possibility belongs to the class Ⅱ, it can be kept safety that object 2 is defined as class m because of existence of random sampling.

slopeextension5probability statisticsMonte-Carlo simulatesrock mass quality

李明、李广杰、张文

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吉林大学建设工程学院,长春130026

边坡 可拓学 概率统计 蒙特卡洛模拟 岩体质量

国土资源部地质灾害大调查基金

220212400032

2011

吉林大学学报(地球科学版)
吉林大学

吉林大学学报(地球科学版)

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心EI
影响因子:1.062
ISSN:1671-5888
年,卷(期):2011.41(5)
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