摘要
经贸摩擦作为主要贸易环境规制手段,是影响国家经济增长的重要因素.文章基于经贸摩擦影响经济发展的理论基础,依据波特假说理论和熊彼特科技创新理论,以世界银行数据库 1999-2022 年 199 个经济体宏观面板数据为研究样本,将经贸摩擦政策事件经济体作为处理组,其他经济体作为控制组,采用双重差分模型检验经贸摩擦对国家经济增长的影响.结果表明:(1)经贸摩擦有利于国家经济增长,且通过内生性检验、替代指标检验以及倾向得分匹配检验后仍然稳健;(2)经济韧性通过产品创新、技术创新、市场创新、资源配置创新和组织创新间接地促进国家经济增长;(3)经贸摩擦对国家经济增长的影响存在异质性;城镇化程度较低经济体、老龄化程度较低经济体、欠发达经济体、亚洲经济体和产业技术程度较低经济体在经贸摩擦环境下,经济韧性促进国家经济增长的作用更显著,表明经贸摩擦发生显著的贸易转移效应和价值创造效应,"后进经济体"具有后发优势.
Abstract
Economic and trade friction,as a primary means of regulating the trade environment,is an important factor affecting national economic growth.Based on the theoretical foundation of how economic and trade friction affects economic development,this paper uses Porter's Hypothesis and Schumpeter's Theory of Technological Innovation.It takes the macro panel data of 199 economies from the World Bank database from 1999 to 2022 as the research sample.The economies with economic and trade friction policies are treated as the treatment group,while other economies are treated as the control group.A difference-in-differences model is used to test the impact of economic and trade friction on national economic growth.The results show:(1)Economic and trade friction is beneficial to national economic growth,and it remains robust after endogeneity tests,alternative indicator tests,and propensity score matching tests;(2)Economic resilience promotes national economic growth indirectly through product innovation,technological innovation,market innovation,resource allocation innovation,and organizational innovation;(3)The impact of economic and trade friction on national economic growth is heterogeneous;in economies with low degree of urbanization,low aging,underdeveloped economies,Asian economies,and economies with lower industrial technology levels,the role of economic resilience in promoting national economic growth under the environment of economic and trade friction is more significant,indicating that economic and trade friction has a significant trade diversion effect and value creation effect,and"lagging economies"have a catch-up advantage.
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