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多设备多参数联动的滑坡预警方法

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在滑坡监测预警工作中,传统的单设备单参数方法准确率较低且存在误报现象.为了得到准确可靠的预警结论,针对拥有多套监测设备的滑坡体需要建立多设备多参数联动的滑坡预警方法.多参数预警方法使用多个参数指标预警模型来综合处理各个设备的监测数据,考虑各个模型权重得出多个设备的综合预警等级.多设备协同预警方法将多套设备根据其空间分布划分成不同组,基于滑坡机理确定各组设备的权重,以监测设备的特征属性进行权重修正.在综合考虑每个设备的预警结论的基础上,分析滑坡整体变形演化情况,并得出同一时段滑坡整体预警级别.该方法的应用可以更快速、更准确地获得滑坡各个部位及整体失稳破坏的前兆信息,并及时准确地发布预警.以四川省小金县沙龙乡苍松村黄水沟滑坡为原型案例测试方法应用效果,结果表明相比于单参数单设备预警方法,该方法将预警次数从32次下降到11次,误报次数从5次下降到1次,预警准确率从84%上升到91%.本方法可以提高滑坡预警的有效性和准确性,有助于制定防灾决策和防灾减灾.
A linked multi-device and multiparameter landslide early warning method
In landslide monitoring and early warning systems,the traditional early warning method that only considers a single parameter of a single device has low accuracy and produces false alarms.Therefore,to obtain accurate and reliable early warnings,a collaborative,multiparameter,multi-device early warning method is established for landslides based on multiple sets of monitoring devices.The multiparameter,early warning method uses multiple parameter indicators to process the monitoring data from each device comprehensively,considering the weights of each model to determine the early warning level of each device.The collaborative,multi-device,early warning method divides the devices into different groups according to their spatial distribution,determines the weights of each group based on landslide mechanisms,and adjusts the weights according to the characteristic attributes of the monitoring devices.Based on a comprehensive analysis of the early warning conclusion from each device,the proposed method analyses the overall deformation evolution of the landslide and determines an overall early warning level.The application of this method can quickly and accurately provide information on the precursors of instability and failure in various regions,overall information of the landslide itself,and issue early warnings in a timely manner.Taking the Huangshuigou landslide in Cangsong Village,Shalong Township,Xiaojin County,Sichuan Province as a prototype case,the application effect of the method is tested.The results show that compared with the single-parameter,single-device early warning method,the proposed method reduces the number of early warnings from 32 to 11,the number of false alarms from five to one,and increases the accuracy of early warning from 84%to 91%.This case study shows that this method can improve the effectiveness and accuracy of early warnings and it can make better disaster prevention decisions.

landslidemonitoring and warningmonitoring equipmentmonitoring parameterswarning model

王豪、何朝阳、巨能攀、马志刚、刘洋、孟睿、解明礼、肖洋

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地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室(成都理工大学),成都 610059

四川省国土空间生态修复与地质灾害防治研究院,成都 610081

四川省自然资源厅,成都 610072

滑坡 监测预警 监测设备 监测参数 预警模型

2024

成都理工大学学报(自然科学版)
成都理工大学

成都理工大学学报(自然科学版)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1.596
ISSN:1671-9727
年,卷(期):2024.51(6)