Prediction of the Potential Distribution Area of Solanum rostratum Dunal in Inner Mongolia under Climate Change
Solanum rostratum Dunal is a quarantine weed with an extremely high reproductive capacity.Moni-toring and predicting its spread is crucial for protecting ecological security and providing scientific data for effec-tive prevention and control measures.This study aims to explore future changes in the suitable growth areas of S.rostratum Dunal in Inner Mongolia.The MaxEnt model was used to predict the suitable growth areas for this species in the 2020s,2050s,and 2070s under two climate scenarios:SSP126(a sustainable development pathway)and SSP585(a conventional fossil fuel development pathway).The results show that the Area Under the Curve(AUC)value of the MaxEnt model's training set is 0.927,indicating high predictive accu-racy.The main climatic factors affecting the distribution of S.rostratum are the average precipitation in the warmest quarter and the average temperature in the coldest quarter.In the 2020s,the plant is primarily concen-trated in the eastern region of Inner Mongolia.However,by the 2050s and 2070s,it is expected to migrate to the western region.Under the SSP126 scenario,the suitable area for S.rostratum is predicted to be 403 710 km2 by the 2050s and 554 070 km2 by the 2070s.In contrast,under the SSP585 scenario,the suitable area expands to 583 430 km2 by the 2050s and 826 090 km2 by the 2070s.This suggests a slower expansion under SSP126,which aligns with national policies focused on sustainable development.
Solanum rostratum DunalMaxEntPotential distribution areaAlien invasive species
万方数据
维普
