首页|21世纪三峡库区极端气温指数的情景预估

21世纪三峡库区极端气温指数的情景预估

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利用气候模式诊断与比较计划(PCMDD提供的9个新一代气候系统模式的模拟结果,通过多模式集合方法预估分析了3种排放情景(高排放A2、中等排放AlB和低排放B1)下21世纪三峡库区3种极端气温指数的可能变化.结果表明:21世纪三峡库区气温年较差呈震荡的趋势,主要将以增大为主.暖夜指数和热浪指数都将显著增加.整个21世纪,库区气温年较差将增加0.4～0.8℃,暖夜指数将增加13.3%～17.4%,热浪指数将增加8.5～13.3d.分阶段来看,21世纪前期,气温年较差将增加0.2～0.6℃;暖夜指数将增加5.1%～7.3%,热浪指数将增加3.1～4.1d;21世纪中期,气温年较差将增加0.4～1.0℃,暖夜指数将增加13.6%～18.9%,热浪指数将增加7.7～12.1d;21世纪后期,气温年较差将增加0.6～1.4℃,暖夜指数将增加19.1%～28.9%,热浪指数将增加14.3～23.7d.
SCENARIOS PROJECTION OF EXTREME TEMPERATURE INDICES IN THE THREE GORGES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY
The projections of extreme temperature indices(ETR、TN90 and HWDI)in the Three Gorges for the 21st century by using the global climate system models provided by PCMDI with the SRES A2,A1B and B1 that joined the IPCC fourth scientific assessment report were analyzed in this paper. The results showed that compared to the current climate(1980～1999),ETR will possibly increase in the most of period in the 21st century,TN90 and HWDI will sharply increase. During the 21th century(2011～2100),ETR will be increased by 0.4℃～0.8℃, TN90 increased by 13.3%～17.4% , HWDI increased by 8.5～13.3 day. In the earlier stage of 21st century (2011～2040),ETR will be increased by 0.2℃～0.6℃,TN90 increased by 5.1%～7.3%, HWDI increased by 3.1～4.1 day. In the mid 21st century (2041～2070) ,ETR will be increased by 0.4℃～1.0℃, TN90 increased by 13.6%～18.9% , HWDI increased by 7.7～12.1 day. In the later stage of 21st century (2071～2100), ETR will be increased by 0.6℃～1.4℃, TN90 increased by 19.1%～28.9%, HWDI increased by 14.3～23.7 day.

extreme temperatureprojectionthe Three Gorges Reservoir Area

张天宇、范莉、程炳岩、刘晓冉、许崇海

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重庆市气候中心,重庆,401147

国家气候中心,北京,100081

极端气温 预估 三峡库区

中国气象局气候变化专项项目

2010

长江流域资源与环境
中国科学院资源环境科学与技术局 中国科学院武汉文献情报中心

长江流域资源与环境

CSTPCDCSSCICSCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：1.35
ISSN：1004-8227
年,卷(期)：2010.19(5)
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