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恩施地区近54年降水量变化特征分析

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基于湖北省恩施州的4个气象站点(巴东、绿葱坡、恩施、来风)以及周边的3个站点(TY州、奉节、五峰)近54a逐年的降水基数据,利用气候倾向率法、ARCGIS空间分析法、小波周期分析法(WaveletAnalysis)和Mann-Kendall突变分析法分别对研究区的降水量的时空变化、周期变化、突变进行了分析。研究表明:湖北恩施地区近54a降水量呈现出波动式的下降趋势,20世纪90年代后尤为明显。从时间变化来看,70年代和90年代的降水量的下降量要比其它年代降水增加量要大;四季变化中除了冬季降水量呈现出较为明显的上升趋势外,其它3个季节降水量呈现较为明显的下降趋势。从空间变化来看,降水量最多的区域主要集中在绿葱坡地区,最少的区域主要集中在东北部的巴东和西北部利川的部分区域,形成了“一高两低”且有东北部向西部逐渐减少的分布态势。
ANALYSIS OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANGE IN ENSHI SINCE RECENT 54 YEARS
Based on the four meteorological station (Badong, Lvcongpo, Enshi, Laifeng) and the surround- ing three station (Wanzhou,Fengjie,Wufeng) nearly 54 years of precipitation data,using the climate trend rate analysis,ARCGIS of spatial analysis, Wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall Mutation analysis, the tem- poral and spatial variation, periodic variation and mutation of precipitation were analyzed. The result showed that the precipitation in Enshi since recent 54 years appeared downtrend and the trend was much more obvious after 1990s. From the temporal change,the amount of precipitation decrease in 1970s and 1990s was more than the amount of precipitation increase in the other times. Precipitation in winter showed obviously increasing trend, while the precipitation in other three seasons showed decreasing trends. From the spatial change,the rainfall mainly focused on the Lvcongpo area, and the precipitation is the least in the northeast of Badong and the part area of northwest of Lichuan, forming "a top two low" and the trend of decreasing from northeast to west area.

precipitationtemporal and spatial variationperiodic variationmutationsWavelet analysisMann-Kendall trend method

杨东、郭素荣、李俊芬

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西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070

降水量 时空变化 周期变化 突变 小波周期分析 Mann-Kendall法

甘肃省自然科学基金

1010RJZA020

2012

长江流域资源与环境
中国科学院资源环境科学与技术局 中国科学院武汉文献情报中心

长江流域资源与环境

CSTPCDCSSCICSCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.35
ISSN:1004-8227
年,卷(期):2012.21(4)
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