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长江退捕渔民的生计风险与应对策略选择研究

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退捕渔民的生计安置是长江十年禁渔能否顺利实施的关键所在,如何防范和避免生计转型中的致贫返贫倾向、实现退捕渔民的可持续发展具有重要现实意义.基于长江退捕渔民调查数据,通过建立生计风险指标体系,识别和评估长江流域不同区域和不同类型退捕渔民的生计风险,利用Binary Logistic模型分析长江退捕渔民生计风险对其应对策略选择的影响机制,以期为科学制定有效的生计风险防范体系提供支撑.研究表明:(1)长江地区渔民退捕后的生计模式以兼业型为主,收入来源主要是非农收入;(2)禁渔政策实施后,长江地区渔民的生计多样化指数呈整体下降趋势,普遍面临着较高的生计风险,生计风险多重性指数为8.5;(3)自然风险、金融风险和政策风险是渔民退捕后面临的最主要的三大风险,不同区域和不同类型退捕渔民的生计风险存在差异性;(4)外出打工和向亲朋借钱是退捕渔民应对风险最主要的策略选择,不同风险因素一定程度上会影响退捕渔民的应对策略.应进一步优化安置帮扶政策,提高政策的持续稳定性,建立多元化的补偿机制,筑牢退捕渔民的生计资本基础,降低其生计风险,确保实现退捕渔民"退得出、稳得住、能致富".
Livelihood Risk and Strategic Choice of Fishermen Retreated from the Yangtze River
The livelihood placement of retreated fishermen is the key to the smooth implementation of the ten-year ban on fishing in the Yangtze River.How to prevent and avoid the tendency of poverty and return to poverty in the livelihood transformation and realize the sustainable development of retreated fishermen is of great practical significance.Based on the field survey data of fishermen in the Yangtze River basin,the livelihood risks of different areas and types of fishermen in the Yangtze River basin were identified and evaluated by establishing a livelihood risk index system.The Binary Logistic model was used to analyze the impact mechanism of livelihood risk on response strategy to providing support for formulating an effective livelihood risk prevention system and guarantee mechanism.The research showed that:(1)The livelihood mode of retreated fishermen in the Yangtze River area was mainly part-time,and the income source was mainly non-agricultural income;(2)After the implementation of the fishing ban policy,the livelihood diversification index of fishermen in the Yangtze River region showed an overall downward trend,facing higher livelihood risks,with a livelihood risk multiplicity index of 8.5;(3)Retreated fishermen were faced with multiple risk factors.Natural risk,ecological risk and policy risk were the three main risks.Differences existed for the livelihood risks of different areas and different types of fishermen.(4)Finding alternative work and borrowing money were the most important strategic choices for the fishermen to cope with risks.The follow-up assistance policy should further build the livelihood capital foundation of the retreated fishermen,reduce their livelihood risks,and ensure the realization of"retreat,stability and prosperity".

retreat fishermenlivelihood riskbinary logistic modelmultiple riskscoping strategies

庞洁、陈洁、白珊珊

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农业农村部农村经济研究中心,北京 100810

河北大学经济学院,河北保定 071002

退捕渔民 生计风险 应对策略

国家现代农业产业技术体系资助

CARS-45

2024

长江流域资源与环境
中国科学院资源环境科学与技术局 中国科学院武汉文献情报中心

长江流域资源与环境

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.35
ISSN:1004-8227
年,卷(期):2024.33(3)
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