长江经济带高温热浪演化特征及人口暴露风险研究
Research on Evolution Characteristics and Population Exposure Risk of Heat Waves in Yangtze River Economic Belt
闫茜 1黄晓军 2张玉星 1赵凯旭 1李琳钰1
作者信息
- 1. 西北大学城市与环境学院,陕西西安 710127
- 2. 西北大学城市与环境学院,陕西西安 710127;陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室,陕西西安 710127;陕西西安城市生态系统定位观测研究站,陕西西安 710127
- 折叠
摘要
在全球变暖的背景下,高温热浪发生的频率、强度、持续时间不断增加,严重威胁人口健康与社会经济发展,如何判别高温热浪的频发地带,明确潜在的人口高温暴露风险已成为学术界关注的热点.利用气象站点数据、人口统计数据,采用高温热浪指数衡量高温热浪严重程度,并结合湿球黑球温度界定的高温热浪天数及人口普查数据构建人口高温暴露风险模型,在县域尺度上揭示1964～2021年长江经济带高温热浪和人口高温暴露风险的时空演化特征,并对风险进行归因,结果表明:(1)长江经济带累积高温热浪指数整体呈现先减少后大幅度增加的趋势,在空间上呈现出从东南向西北地区逐渐递减的特征,并具有明显的空间集聚性.(2)近60年间长江经济带人口高温暴露风险增加了 96.2％,空间分布格局为"一低三高",即西部地区低,成渝城市群、长江经济带中游及下游核心地带高.人口高温暴露风险集聚模式主要呈现整体集聚化,局部以高暴露风险区县集聚和低暴露风险区县集聚为主的空间特征.(3)人口因子和气候因子对人口高温暴露风险变化起关键作用,且在2000年后,气候因子的作用逐渐加强,贡献率由50％左右增至80％左右.从区域尺度上看,人口因子、气候因子分别对下游地区、中游地区高温暴露风险变化的贡献率最大.
Abstract
In the context of global warming,the frequency,intensity,and duration of heat waves are increasing,which seriously threatens the population health and socioeconomic development.How to identify the frequency belts of heat waves and clarify the potential population exposure risk of heat waves has been becoming a hot topic of academic concern.According to meteorological station data and demographic data,we used heat wave index to measure the severity of heat waves,and combined the heat wave days defined by wet bulb global temperature and population census data to construct the population exposure risk model of heat wave.We revealed the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of heat waves and population exposure risk at the county scale in the Yangtze River economic Belt from 1964 to 2021.The results showed that:(1)The cumulative heat wave index in the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed a trend of first decreasing and then significantly increasing,with a spatially decreasing feature from the southeast to the northwest,and has an obvious spatial agglomeration.(2)In the past 60 years,the population exposure risk of heat waves in the Yangtze River Economic Belt increased by 96.2％,and the spatial distribution pattern was"one low and three high",which implied that the western region was low,while the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration,core areas in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt were high.The agglomeration mode of population exposure risk of heat waves mainly presented an overall agglomeration,with local spatial agglomeration characteristics consisting of high exposure risk districts and counties and low exposure risk districts and counties.(3)Population factors and climate factors played a key role in changes in population high temperature exposure risk.After 2000,the role of climate factors gradually strengthened,with the contribution rate increasing from about 50％to about 80％.From a regional scale,population factors and climate factors contributed the most to the change of population exposure risk of heat waves in the middle and lower reaches.
关键词
高温/人口暴露风险/高温热浪指数/湿球黑球温度/长江经济带Key words
high temperature/population exposure risk/heat wave index/wet bulb global temperature/Yan-gtze River Economic Belt引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(41971178)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据