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干旱事件下PM2.5和臭氧复合污染动力机制及其影响因素

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以长株潭城市群3个城市(长沙、株洲和湘潭)干旱期间(2022年7月1日至12月31日)和非干旱期间(2020和2021年同期)PM2.5和O3小时平均浓度序列为研究对象,探究干旱事件对PM2.5-O3复合污染演化的内在动力机制的影响及其影响因素.首先,对研究期间3个城市PM2.5和O3浓度的日变化模式进行分析,结果发现PM2.5浓度均呈现出M型的日变化规律,但干旱期间PM2.5浓度下降,且波峰和波谷时段发生显著变化.O3浓度日变化均呈现出"昼高夜低"单峰型模式,干旱期间O3浓度上升.接下来,应用多重分形去趋势互相关分析法(MF-DCCA)研究PM2.5-O3互相关性的多时间尺度特征.研究结果发现,各年各城市PM2.5-O3互相关关系均呈现出显著地长期持续性特征和多重分形结构,且干旱期间各城市长期持续性指数均降低,多重分形强度增强.进而,应用滑移窗口方法、MF-DCCA以及格兰杰因果检验方法分析PM2.5-O3互相关长期持续性特征演化规律及其影响因素.结果发现,干旱期间各城市PM2.5-O3互相关的长期持续性演化的影响因素主要是气压,而非干旱期间的影响因素主要是气温和风速.最后,基于自组织临界理论(SOC)探讨非干旱期间和干旱期间PM2.5-O3互相关关系的内在动力机制.结果发现,长期持续性特征主要受SOC机制所主导,即SOC机制是驱动PM2.5-O3复合污染演化的主要非线性动力机制,但干旱事件使得主要影响因素由气温和风速变成气压.文章拓展了复合污染的内在动力机制的相关研究,为我国深入推进全球变暖背景下复合污染防控提供了新的启示.
Internal Dynamic Mechanism of Atmospheric Composite Pollution and Its Driving Factors During Drought Events
The hourly average concentrations of PM2.5 and O3 in the three cities of the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration(Changsha,Zhuzhou,and Xiangtan)were analyzed for both drought(July 1 to December 31,2022)and non-drought periods(corresponding periods in 2020 and 2021).The objective was to explore the impact of drought events on the intrinsic dynamic mechanisms of PM2.5-O3 compound pollution and its influencing factors.Initially,the diurnal patterns of PM2.5 and O3 concentrations during the study period were examined.It was observed that PM2.5 concentrations followed an M-shaped diurnal variation pattern,with a decrease during the drought period and significant shifts in the timing of peaks and troughs.Conversely,O3 concentrations showed a unimodal pattern of being higher during the day and lower at night,with an increase during the drought period.Subsequently,Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis(MF-DCCA)was employed to investigate the multi-timescale characteristics of the cross-correlation between PM2.5 and O3.The results revealed significant long-term persistence and multifractal characteristics in the cross-correlation of PM2.5 and O3 across all cities and years,with a decrease in persistence indices and an increase in multifractal intensity during the drought periods.Furthermore,the sliding window method,MF-DCCA,and Granger causality tests were utilized to analyze the evolution and influencing factors of the long-term persistence characteristics of PM2.5-O3 cross-correlation.This study found that atmospheric pressure was the primary factor influencing the evolution of long-term persistence in PM2.5-O3 cross-correlation during the drought periods,while temperature and wind speed were the main factors during the non-drought periods.Finally,the Self-Organized Criticality theory(SOC)was applied to discuss the internal dynamic mechanisms of PM2.5-O3 cross-correlation during both drought and non-drought periods.The findings of this study provided a useful reference for coping with atmospheric composite pollution under the global warming condition.

diurnal patternslong-term persistence characteristicsmultifractal characteristicsGranger causal-ity testself-organized criticality

张娇、吴波、赵佩、王苑博

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吉首大学数学与统计学院,湖南吉首 416000

中南财经政法大学统计与数学学院,湖北武汉 430073

日变化模式 长期持续性特征 多重分形结构 格兰杰因果检验 自组织临界理论

湖南省教育厅资助科学研究项目湖南省教育厅资助科学研究项目湖南省教育厅资助科学研究项目湖南省自科项目国家自然科学基金地区科学基金

22C027522C027422A03552023JJ3048512361053

2024

10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202408014

长江流域资源与环境
中国科学院资源环境科学与技术局 中国科学院武汉文献情报中心

长江流域资源与环境

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：1.35
ISSN：1004-8227
年,卷(期)：2024.33(8)