首页|农业社会化服务试点政策的碳减排效果评估——来自准自然实验的证据

农业社会化服务试点政策的碳减排效果评估——来自准自然实验的证据

扫码查看
原文链接
  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • 万方数据
全球温室效应引发的极端天气给农业生产造成了巨大损失，有效降低农业碳排放强度成为各国政府和学者关注的热点话题。运用渐进双重差分法等从政策效应出发探讨了农业社会化服务试点政策的碳减排效应、影响机制和异质性。研究结果表明:(1)农业社会化服务试点政策实施对农业碳排放强度具有持续的抑制作用，能有效实现农业碳减排。在一系列稳健性检验后模型的结果依旧是稳健的。(2)农业社会化服务试点政策实施可以通过降低化肥施用强度、促进土地流转和促进种植结构"趋粮化"调整来间接降低农业碳排放强度。(3)农业社会化服务试点政策的碳减排效果存在异质性，其中在农业碳排放强度较高的地区、粮食主产区和非西部地区，政策的碳减排效果更显著。因此，为有效降低农业碳排放强度，需要稳步促进土地流转，加快建立完善的农业生产社会化服务体系，加大政策支持与构建激励机制并举，全面响应化肥农药减量化行动，推进农业绿色社会化服务水平提升。
Evaluation of Carbon Reduction Effectiveness of Pilot Policies for Agricultural Socialization Services:Evidence from Quasi Natural Experiments
The extreme weather caused by the global greenhouse effect results in substantial losses in agricultural production.Consequently,the reduction of agricultural carbon emission intensity has emerged as a prominent subject of interest among governments and academia worldwide.This paper explored the effects of agricultural socialized service pilot policies on carbon emission reduction,impacting mechanisms,and the heterogeneity.This paper analyzed these aspects from the perspective of policy effects,by using the difference-in-difference method and other relevant methodologies.The findings of the study suggested that:(1)The implementation of pilot policies for agricultural socialized services was found to have a sustained inhibitory effect on the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions,leading to successful reduction of carbon reduction in agricultural sector.After a series of robustness tests,the results of the model remained robust.(2)The implementation of pilot policies for agricultural socialized services could indirectly reduce the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions.This could be accomplished by reducing the intensity of fertilizer application,facilitating land transfer,and promoting the adjustment of planting structure towards grain orientation.(3)The carbon reduction effect of the pilot policy for agricultural socialized services exhibited a spatial heterogeneity.The policy demonstrated a larger carbon reduction effect in areas of higher agricultural carbon emission intensity,major grain producing areas,and non-western areas.Therefore,in order to effectively reduce the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions,it is necessary to steadily promote land transfer,accelerate the establishment of a sound agricultural production socialization service system,increase policy support and build incentive mechanisms,respond adequately to the fertilizer and pesticide reduction action,and improve the service of agricultural green socialization.

pilot policies for socialized agricultural servicesagricultural carbon emission intensitypolicy effect evaluationquasi natural experimentsdifference-in-difference method

周发明、唐望、彭柳林

展开 >

湖南农业大学经济学院,湖南长沙 410128

湖南第一师范学院商学院,湖南长沙 410205

江西省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所,江西南昌 330200

农业社会化服务试点政策 农业碳排放强度 政策效应评价 准自然实验 渐进双重差分法

国家自然科学基金项目中国博士后科学基金面上项目

721630152020M682110

2024

10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202409007

长江流域资源与环境
中国科学院资源环境科学与技术局 中国科学院武汉文献情报中心

长江流域资源与环境

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：1.35
ISSN：1004-8227
年,卷(期)：2024.33(9)