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零售商过度自信下考虑服务努力的多渠道供应链决策

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在过度自信行为下零售商期望通过强化服务努力水平投入,更大程度满足消费者需求,导致其进行多渠道供应链决策时易高估市场需求,致使实际利润难以达到预期利润.对此,分别考虑零售商完全理性和过度自信下的服务努力行为,建立分销、代销模式下市场需求以及利润函数模型,运用Stackelberg博弈方法对模型进行求解.研究多渠道供应链过度自信系数、消费者服务偏好、市场需求结构占比、第三方电商平台代理费比例对决策的影响,以及对比零售商不同销售模式下完全理性利润、过度自信下预期及实际利润,通过数值仿真进一步验证了理论推导的正确性.研究结果表明:当交叉价格弹性系数和服务努力成本系数满足一定条件时,零售商过度自信下期望利润大于完全理性利润及过度自信下实际利润;当平台代理费比例低于某节点时,零售商会选择代销,超过此节点时,会偏向分销;自营渠道市场需求结构占比与服务努力成本系数对第三方电商平台售价的降低具有显著的协同作用;代销模式下,各渠道最优售价、服务努力水平随着代理费比例的增加先减少后增加.
Multichannel supply chain decisions considering service efforts under retailer overconfidence
With the overconfidence behaviors,retailers aim to better meet consumer demands by strengthening their services,leading to the overestimation of market demands when making multi-channel supply chain decisions and causing the imbalance between the actual profits and the expected profits.With the consideration of the service effort behavior of retailers under complete rationality and overconfidence,this paper builds the market demand and profit function models under the distribution consignment model and employs the Stackelberg game method to solve the model.The influence of the overconfidence coefficient of multi-channel supply chain,consumer service preference,the proportion of market demand structure,the proportion of agency fee of third-party e-commerce platform on decision-making,and the comparison of expected and actual profits under the expectation and overconfidence of retailers under different sales models are studied.The correctness of the theoretical derivation is further verified by numerical simulation.Our results show when the cross-price elasticity coefficient and the cost coefficient of service effort meet certain conditions,the expected profit under retailers' overconfidence is greater than that under completely rational profit and the actual profit under overconfidence.When the proportion of platform agency fees is lower than a certain node,retailers will choose to sell on behalf of the retailer.When it exceeds this node,it will be biased towards distribution.The proportion of market demand structure of self-operated channels and the cost coefficient of service have a significant synergistic effect on the reduction of the selling price of third-party e-commerce platforms.Under the consignment model,the optimal selling price and service level of each channel decrease first and then increase with the rise of the proportion of agency fees.

overconfidenceservice effortsupply chain decision makingStackelberg game

邢青松、步云旭、邓富民

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重庆交通大学 经济与管理学院,重庆 400074

四川大学 商学院,成都 610065

过度自信 服务努力 供应链决策 Stackelberg博弈

2024

重庆理工大学学报
重庆理工大学

重庆理工大学学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.567
ISSN:1674-8425
年,卷(期):2024.38(17)