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我国主要超大城市人口减少:态势、成因与对策建议

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超大城市是国家和地区经济社会发展的动力源和增长极.目前,我国主要超大城市集中出现了较为明显的人口减少现象,但不同城市人口变化的特征和趋势存在显著差异.深入分析我国主要超大城市人口减少的基本态势,通过详实的数据统计,揭示上海、北京、深圳、广州、天津等城市在2013-2022年间常住人口的变化情况.研究发现,尽管部分城市如成都和重庆的人口依然流入,但增量同比有所下降,而北京、上海、天津、广州和深圳则出现不同程度的常住人口减少.这表明我国超大城市人口减少问题在一定程度上反映了城市发展的客观规律,也受到宏观人口趋势、外部压力冲击、城市规划设计、产业转型升级、城市之间竞争等多重因素的影响.超大城市人口减少的问题对城市发展既是挑战也是机遇.未来,超大城市应以人口"减量"为契机,贯彻落实人民城市理念,聚焦高品质生活、高质量发展、高效能治理,加快转变城市发展方式,不断提升城市综合发展水平,持续增强城市的人口吸引力和承载力,以应对人口减少带来的挑战,并抓住其中的发展机遇.
Population decline in major mega-cities in China:Trends,causes,and countermeasures
Mega-cities are the driving force and growth pole of national and regional economic and social development.At present,there is a significant population decline in major mega cities in China,but there are significant differences in the characteristics and trends of population changes among different cities.This article provides an in-depth analysis of the basic trend of population decline in major mega cities in China.Through detailed data statistics,it reveals the changes of the permanent population in the major mega cities such as Shanghai,Beijing,Shenzhen,Guangzhou,and Tianjin from 2013 to 2022.Research has found that although some cities such as Chengdu and Chongqing still have population inflows,the year-on-year growth is a step down with Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,Guangzhou,and Shenzhen having experienced varying degrees of permanent population decline.This indicates that the population decline in China's mega cities reflects to some extent the objective laws of urban development,and is also influenced by multiple factors such as macro population trends,external pressure shocks,urban planning and design,industrial transformation and upgrading,and competition between cities.The problem of population decline in mega cities is both a challenge and an opportunity for urban development.In the future,the mega cities should take the opportunity of population reduction,implement the concept of people's cities,focus on high-quality living,high-quality development,and efficient governance,accelerate the transformation of urban development mode,continuously improve the comprehensive development level of cities,and continuously enhance the population attraction and carrying capacity of cities to cope with the challenges brought by population reduction and seize the development opportunities therein.

mega-citiespopulation declinehigh quality urban developmentpopulation attractivenessurban carrying capacity

赵峥、郭靖、徐海东、张诗琪

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国务院发展研究中心公共管理与人力资源研究所,北京 100010

深圳大学政府管理学院,广东 深圳 518060

深圳大学全球特大型城市治理研究院,广东 深圳 518060

中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,北京 100010

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超大城市 人口减少 城市高质量发展 人口吸引力 城市承载力

2024

重庆理工大学学报
重庆理工大学

重庆理工大学学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.567
ISSN:1674-8425
年,卷(期):2024.38(22)