Resilience Evaluation and Key Factors Identification of Sea Lanes
The safety and unimpeded passage of sea lanes is the core guarantee for the stable development of the mari-time transport industry.In order to evaluate the resilience level of sea lanes scientifically,a resilience evaluation framework based on principal component analysis,fuzzy logic and Bayesian network model was proposed.Firstly,by analyzing the relevant accident reports and literature,the key factors affecting the resilience level of sea lanes was i-dentified on the basis of the dually driven perspective.Then,in order to make up for the defects of the correlation be-tween the influencing factors and fully mine the sample information,principal component analysis was used to screen the initial indexes.Finally,the index weights obtained by principal component analysis were used as the quantitative input of the interrelationships between influencing factors in Bayesian networks,thus taking into account the impor-tance of influencing factors and effectively overcoming the defect of ignoring the importance of indexes in traditional Bayesian networks.The research results show that the proposed resilience evaluation framework can measure the re-silience level of sea lanes more effectively than other evaluation methods do,which provides an important theoretical basis and decision-making reference for the resilience evaluation of sea lanes.
traffic and transportation engineeringsea lanesBayesian networkfactor identificationprincipal com-ponent analysisresilience
万方数据
维普
