基于移动流行区间法及德尔菲法的流感样病例百分比阈值探讨及临床应用
Study on the percentage threshold of influenza-like cases based on moving epidemic interval method and Delphi
魏孝侃 1刘潇潇 1初艳慧 1秦迪 1陈瑜 1周春莲2
作者信息
- 1. 100120,北京市西城区疾病预防控制中心传染病与地方病预防控制科
- 2. 100050,首都医科大学北京友谊医院疾病预防控制与感染管理处
- 折叠
摘要
目的 研究基于移动流行区间法及德尔菲法的流感样病例阈值以及医院管理措施.方法 调取2014—2019年首都医科大学北京友谊医院通过北京市医院传染病监测预警信息系统上报的流感样病例数据,采用移动流行区间法对流感样病例阈值进行计算,使用德尔菲法专法对院内管理措施进行优化.结果 移动流行区间法计算结果显示,以δ 值为2.30时,模型的马修相关指数较高,2013/2014、2015/2016、2016/2017、2017/2018流感样病例流行季的流行强度为中等流行水平,2014/2015流感样病例流行季的流行强度为低等流行水平,2018/2019流感样病例流行季的流行强度为超高等流行水平.低等流行水平、中等流行水平、高等流行水平、超高等流行水平的流感样病例百分比阈值分别为1.57％、2.28％、4.53％以及6.14％.德尔菲法调查结果显示,专家认为在流感的超高流行期,建议医护人员数量增加100％,病房普通床位预留比例增加100％,流感院内防控物资储备增加100％,流感相关药品的储备增加100％,信息系统以及医疗设备维检频次调整为1次/d,其他指标无需改变.结论 医院根据流感阈值,及时调整相关物资、人员配置,以应对流感样病例的流行,预防医疗资源挤兑.
Abstract
Objective The influenza-like case threshold and hospital management measures were studied based on mobile epidemic interval and Delphi method. Methods The percentage data of influenza-like cases reported by Beijing Friendship Hospital of Capital Medical University from 2014 to 2019 through the Beijing Municipal Hospital Infectious Disease Monitoring and Early Warning Information System were collected. Subsequently, the influenza-like case threshold was calculated using the mobile epidemic interval method, and the Delphi expert consultation method was used to optimize the hospital management measures. Results In this study, when the δ value was 2.30, the Matthew correlation index of the model was high, the epidemic intensity of the 2013/2014, 2015/2016, 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 seasons was the moderate epidemic level, and the epidemic intensity of the 2014/2015 season was the low epidemic level. In the 2018/2019 season, the epidemic intensity was at the ultra-high epidemic level. The percentage thresholds of influenza-like cased at the low epidemic level, the medium epidemic level, the high epidemic level and the ultra-high epidemic level were 1.57％, 2.28％, 4.53％ and 6.14％, respectively, according to the calculation of the mobile epidemic interval method. Experts believed that during the ultra-high prevalence period of influenza, the number of medical staff was recommended to increase by 100％, the proportion of common beds reserved in wards was recommended to increase by 100％, the reserve of influenza prevention and control materials in hospitals was recommended to increase by 100％, the reserve of influenza-related drugs was recommended to increase by 100％, and the maintenance check frequency of information systems and medical equipment were recommended to be adjusted to once a day. Other indicators did not require any changes, according to the experts' assessment. Conclusion According to the influenza threshold, the hospital timely adjusts the allocation of relevant materials and personnel to address the epidemic of influenza-like cases and prevents the run on medical resources.
关键词
德尔菲法/移动流行区间法/流行性感冒/流感样病例/流感样病例百分比/阈值Key words
Delphi method/mobile epidemic interval method/Influenza/influenza-like cases/percentage of influenza-like cases/threshold value引用本文复制引用
基金项目
北京市西城区卫生健康委青年科技人才项目(XWKX2024-22)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据