Objective T2o understand the spatio-temporal differentiation of HFMD in Guangdong Province and its influencing factors,and provide scientific reference for prevention and control of HFMD in Guangdong Province. Methods This paper collected the incidence data of HFMD in Guangdong Province from 2008 to 2018. Spatial autocorrelation analysis,emerging spatio-temporal hotspot analysis,standard deviation ellipse and Spearman correlation analysis were used to study the spatio-temporal differentiation of HFMD and its influencing factors in Guangdong Province. Results The number of HFMD cases in Guangdong Province continued to increase from 2008 to 2014,and showed a downward trend from 2015 to 2018. From 2008 to 2018,the incidence of HFMD in Guangdong Province showed a double peak pattern and a significant spatial aggregation. Cases were concentrated in the northeast-southwest oriented region centered on the Pearl River Delta,and showed a gradual decrease in distance from the center,with fewer cases in the eastern,western and northern regions of Guangdong. Consecutive hot spot were mainly located in the coastal area of Shenzhen,oscillating hot spots were concentrated in the Pearl River Delta and its adjacent areas,persistent cold spot were concentrated in the eastern part of Guangdong,and persistent cold spot were distributed in both the eastern and western parts of Guangdong Spearman correlation analysis showed that the incidence of HFMD in Guangdong Province was negatively correlated with the average annual maximum temperature (rs=-0.227),the average annual precipitation (rs=0.418) and the resident population density (rs=0.236) and gross regional product (rs=0.374) were positively correlated. Conclusion From 2008 to 2018,the number of HFMD cases in Guangdong Province increased first and then fluctuating declined,but the epidemic situation of HFMD in Guangdong Province is still serious. On the whole,the spatial differentiation is significant,and the prevention and control efforts should be strengthened in key areas to prevent the outbreak of HFMD.
关键词
手足口病/时空分布/空间分析/空间自相关/广东省
Key words
hand,foot and mouth disease/spatiotemporal distribution/spatial analysis/spatial autocorrelation/Guangdong Province
维普
万方数据